136 Sheffield Cir · Spurgeon, TN 37615

$88,875

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Other · 30 Days on market

Built 1994 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

136 Sheffield Circle, Johnson City, TN 37615 Fabulous Opportunity! This phenomenal home has been built with the utmost design, skill, craftsmanship, and TLC. The open-concept layout was thoughtfully designed to make every inch of space functional, comfortable, and inviting. The gorgeous kitchen truly says & acirc; & euro; & oelig; WELCOME! & acirc; & euro; � with its large center island, beautiful cabinetry, spacious pantry, and brand-new Samsung appliances. Whether you enjoy cooking, entertaining, or simply gathering with family, this kitchen is the heart of the home. The spacious living room is warm and inviting, featuring three gorgeous decorative windows that provid

Key facts

• Large center island
• Spacious pantry
• Gorgeous kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• BRAND-NEW SAMSUNG APPLIANCES
• THREE DECORATIVE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.2% in Spurgeon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#256 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington County (suburban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #54 of 139 in TN (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $614 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,541 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.93%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $20,568
• Equity at exit: $13,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $51,200
• Equity at exit: $7,684

Cash invested: $24,885 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37615

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,333/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $777

Max offer price $88,875

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $682	-5% $651	+0% $621	+5% $590	+10% $559
Rent	-10% $497	-5% $559	+0% $621	+5% $682	+10% $744
Rate	-1.0pp $665	-0.5pp $643	base $621	+0.5pp $598	+1.0pp $574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,219
• Closing costs: $2,666
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Gray Station Rd Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.5	1224	$1,200	$0.98	22d	1	0.19mi
194 Gray Station Rd #194 Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,500	$1.23	22d	1	0.19mi
148 Gray Station Rd Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,185	$0.99	14d	2	0.37mi
148 Gray Station Rd #202 Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,225	$1.02	22d	1	0.38mi
104 Northwood Ave Unit 8 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	22d	1	0.71mi
127 Lee Dr Apt 3 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	729	$975	$1.34	22d	1	0.89mi
568 Gray Station Rd #6 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,350	$1.32	14d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,875 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $88,875 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,875 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $88,875 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,875 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,875 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $88,875 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $88,875 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $88,875 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,875 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,875 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $88,875 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-16
    listed $88,875 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,978
• − Property taxes: −$1,333
• − Insurance: −$444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$2,585
• Taxable income: $6,414
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $5,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, and minor updates to the landscaping and interior can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and inviting
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen
• Rental Bathroom updates — Modern bathrooms can attract more renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and inviting ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen ↑
• Rental Bathroom updates — Modern bathrooms can attract more renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington County
• NCES district ID: 4704380
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,542
• Composite: 25.85/100
• National rank: #7350
• State rank: #54 of 139 in TN

Livability — Spurgeon

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #18195

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spurgeon, TN
• County: Washington County · 129,006 people
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• Population (ZIP): 22,821
• Household income: $77,525
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 278.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 132,816 people
• By 2030: 135,823 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 140,897 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 145,073 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 156,386 · +17.7%
• By 2100: 159,893 · +20.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.6% · R 69.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+36.2 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+38.5 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.47%
• Current HPI: 279.1199
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.63%
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $88,875 FSBO.com