5104 Greengrass Willow Way · Houston, TX 77048

$269,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,923 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully designed single-story home offers the perfect blend of functionality, comfort, and open-concept living. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this floor plan was designed with both everyday living and entertaining in mind. The heart of the home is the open kitchen, complete with a large island overlooking the dining area and family room perfect for hosting family gatherings or enjoying quiet evenings at home. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned on the opposite side of the home, offering flexibility for guests, childre

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Large island
• En-suite bath

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH
• DEDICATED UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Allison Park Community Association; Annual association fee of $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story entry (all principal rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 2026; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer listed among appliances

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $342,294.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-766 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $210,423 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.59%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,294
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5112 Itiel St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,721 (-10%)	12mo	$255,500	$148	40
5115 Frisch St	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,709 (-11%)	16mo	$275,000	$161	37
12916 Sirkis St	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,690 (-12%)	22mo	$265,000	$157	36
12921 Mac And Cheese Path	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,659 (-14%)	8mo	$294,990	$178	36
4811 Peanut Butter And Jelly Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,659 (-14%)	6mo	$289,990	$175	35
4819 Peanut Butter And Jelly Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,659 (-14%)	8mo	$294,990	$178	33
12910 Ami And Tami Pl	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,659 (-14%)	8mo	$259,990	$157	33
12918 Ami And Tami Pl	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,659 (-14%)	10mo	$304,990	$184	32
4825 Tili And Gili St	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,659 (-14%)	12mo	$299,990	$181	30
4819 Tili And Gili St	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,659 (-14%)	14mo	$304,990	$184	26
4811 Tili And Gili St	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,659 (-14%)	14mo	$299,990	$181	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-18,280
• Equity at exit: $146,483

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $7,463
• Equity at exit: $220,135

Cash invested: $95,842 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,795
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,134/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,074

Max offer price $231,427

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-530	-5% $-648	+0% $-766	+5% $-884	+10% $-1,003
Rent	-10% $-932	-5% $-849	+0% $-766	+5% $-683	+10% $-600
Rate	-1.0pp $-594	-0.5pp $-679	base $-766	+0.5pp $-855	+1.0pp $-945

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,574
• Closing costs: $10,269
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	8d	1	0.09mi
13311 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,250	$1.41	44d	1	0.14mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	23d	1	0.15mi
4814 Centipede Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	0.40mi
13958 Cottingham St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,825	$1.74	0d	37	0.77mi
5919 Allison Rd Unit B Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1450	$1,850	$1.28	44d	1	1.03mi
14220 S Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,431	$1.31	11d	12	1.15mi
4111 Oakview Creek Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1885	$2,150	$1.14	44d	1	1.38mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	44d	1	1.40mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	15d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,990 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $269,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,174
• − Property taxes: −$5,134
• − Insurance: −$1,711
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$9,958
• Taxable loss: −$15,523
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,725
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+900.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $26,990 HARMLS