1412 Russell St · Rocky Mount, NC 27803

$149,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,259 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1975 8,280 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New windows, HVAC has been replaced, 1 Car porch. Property selling AS IS, (Need some repair). Seller giving $6,000 allowance for repairs and/or closing costs.

Key facts

• New windows
• 8,280 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• HVAC HAS BEEN REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R6MFA; Lot dimensions approximately 72 x 115 (0.19 acres); Road frontage on city street and state road

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space); On-street parking available; On-site parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available and connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residential; One level
• Construction: Concrete and brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Storm door(s); Chain link fence in back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances listed; Laundry located in the kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.5% in Rocky Mount — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#134 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bailey Elementary (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 538 students, 75% FRL); Rocky Mount Middle (math 7% / reading 26%, grade F, #449 of 475 statewide, top 96%, 407 students, 97% FRL); Rocky Mount High (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #449 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,072 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 59% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,130
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
902 Nashville Rd	0.05mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,293 (+3%)	0mo	$57,900	$45	88
1201 York St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,243 (-1%)	2mo	$91,000	$73	82
1642 W Raleigh Blvd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,170 (-7%)	9mo	$158,000	$135	68
1220 Neal St	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,342 (+7%)	1mo	$149,000	$111	65
605 Dexter St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-3%)	2mo	$65,000	$53	65
1809 Burton St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,135 (-10%)	10mo	$80,000	$70	62
625 Powell Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,212 (-4%)	1mo	$148,500	$123	61
623 Henry St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-6%)	4mo	$21,000	$18	60
736 Cedarbrook Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+0%)	8mo	$168,500	$134	52
625 W Raleigh Blvd	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,332 (+6%)	7mo	$30,000	$23	48
414 Dexter St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,154 (-8%)	8mo	$62,500	$54	44
517 Henry St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,420 (+13%)	8mo	$62,500	$44	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,410
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $23,694
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27803

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $756/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 227 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 224 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 219 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 218 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 209 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 208 DOM
17. 2026-04-12
    price $149,000
18. 2025-11-03
    listed $160,000 Active
19. 2024-12-15
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $756 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 61.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$756
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,334
• − Management: −$1,334
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $2,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nash-Rocky Mount Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703270
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,553
• Composite: 22.04/100
• National rank: #8198
• State rank: #155 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rocky Mount

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #7692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocky Mount, NC
• County: Nash County · 50,768 people
• City population: 70,300
• Metro: Rocky Mount, NC
• Population (ZIP): 20,055
• Household income: $60,124
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 641.0

Population outlook (Nash County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,107 people
• By 2030: 89,193 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 84,959 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,517 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 72,941 · -19.9%
• By 2100: 63,602 · -30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 44% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nash

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+0.2 2012: D+0.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.95%
• Current HPI: 190.0204
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.51%
• Metro: Rocky Mount, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $149,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $160,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-12-15 Listed $150,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $756 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.