114 Shelton Ave · Auburndale, FL 33823

$250,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1963 8,215 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own this 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping. Get your offer in TODAY!

Key facts

• Boat docks
• New a/c system
• Community boat ramp

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• BOAT DOCKS
• PICNIC PAVILIONS
• PLAYGROUNDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Zoned R-3

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0 to less than 1/4 acre lot (approx. 0.19 acre, 60 x 135)
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Private mailbox
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $251k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($230/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $251k implies a 1221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,519 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,175
• Equity at exit: $37,425

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-31,398
• Equity at exit: $21,702

Cash invested: $70,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,316
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,539/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,961

Max offer price $250,999

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,750
• Closing costs: $7,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Oleander Ave Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$2,100	$2.92	23d	1	0.14mi
3014 Reiter Dr Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	826	$1,325	$1.60	23d	1	0.56mi
148 Madalyn Ct Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,950	$1.32	14d	1	0.72mi
651 Duncan Cir W Auburndale, FL	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,595	$1.41	23d	1	0.84mi
704 Sunset Ave Unit B Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	14d	1	1.17mi
4 Sandy Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	954	$1,620	$1.70	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,999 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,999 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,999 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,999 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,999 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,999 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,999 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,999 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,999 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,999 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,999 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,999 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,999 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,999 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    listed $250,999 Active
16. 2015-06-30
    soldstatus $19,000 Sold 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping. Get your offer in TODAY!

17. 2015-05-29
    status Pending 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping. Get your offer in TODAY!

18. 2015-05-28
    historical 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping. Get your offer in TODAY!

19. 2015-05-22
    status Pending 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping. Get your offer in TODAY!

20. 2015-05-18
    historical 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping. Get your offer in TODAY!

21. 2015-04-10
    listed $19,000 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping. Get your offer in TODAY!

22. 2015-04-10
    historical 127-char remark

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping. Get your offer in TODAY!

23. 1963-12-01
    soldstatus $7,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,539 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,083 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 35.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,060
• − Property taxes: −$1,539
• − Insurance: −$1,255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − Depreciation: −$7,302
• Taxable loss: −$4,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$995
• After-tax cash flow: $1,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3117.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $250,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-30 Sold (MLS) $19,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-10 Listed $19,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1963-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,539 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.