277 S Paseo Pena Unit c · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$94,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 23 Days on market

Built 1964 $372/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Park at your front door, lovely Villa. Great location close to beautiful, green park area. Villa boasts ceiling fans, gorgeous, easy caare laminate flooring, SW paint, newer low E windows, attractive security door, and entry door wtih low E glass and built in blinds. Kitchen with gas stove, lots of cabinets with under cabinet lightening and as added bonus under cabinet lighting on kitchen floor, making a great night light. WOW in addition this unit has it's own full size washer/dryer in store room with added storage. Furniture conveys at no extra cost. HOA fee covers all outside maintenance including roof, HVAC and water heater, It also covers watter, sewer, trash pickup, and community pool.

Key facts

• Newer low e windows
• Built in blinds
• Gas range

Tags

• EASY CARE LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEWER LOW E WINDOWS
• BUILT IN BLINDS
• GAS RANGE
• GENEROUS CABINET SPACE
• FULL SIZE WASHER DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot irregularly shaped; Lot size approximately 784 square feet; Living area approximately 588; Property zoning: Green Valley - TR; Directions available
• HOA & community: HOA: Green Valley West Co; HOA fee $372 monthly; Community pool; Paved streets

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors; Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One level
• Construction: Slump block construction; Built-up reflective roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Shrubs; Subdivided lot; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range; Disposal; Exhaust fan
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Exhaust fan; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($625/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,590 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-8,019
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $14,088
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$118 /mo · $1,410/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$372
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,293

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $85	+0% $52	+5% $20	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $-2	+0% $52	+5% $106	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $76	base $52	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	15d	1	0.15mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	2d	1	0.16mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.17mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.20mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.20mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	17d	1	0.21mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	17d	1	0.21mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.21mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.22mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.24mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	2d	1	0.24mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $372 · $4,464/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashgaspoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-03
   historical Active Contingent
3. 2026-04-13
   listed $94,000 Active
4. 2025-12-01
   status Active
5. 2025-10-25
   status Pending
6. 2025-10-25
   historical
7. 2025-10-13
   historical Active Contingent
8. 2025-10-12
   price $135,000
9. 2025-06-09
   listed $119,000 Active
10. 2021-07-13
    soldstatus $112,000 Closed 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Park at your front door, lovely Villa. Great location close to beautiful, green park area. Villa boasts ceiling fans, gorgeous, easy caare laminate flooring, SW paint, newer low E windows, attractive security door, and entry door wtih low E glass and built in blinds. Kitchen with gas stove, lots of cabinets with under cabinet lightening and as added bonus under cabinet lighting on kitchen floor, making a great night light. WOW in addition this unit has it's own full size washer/dryer in store room with added storage. Furniture conveys at no extra cost. HOA fee covers all outside maintenance including roof, HVAC and water heater, It also covers watter, sewer, trash pickup, and community pool.

11. 2021-05-31
    historical Active Contingent 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Park at your front door, lovely Villa. Great location close to beautiful, green park area. Villa boasts ceiling fans, gorgeous, easy caare laminate flooring, SW paint, newer low E windows, attractive security door, and entry door wtih low E glass and built in blinds. Kitchen with gas stove, lots of cabinets with under cabinet lightening and as added bonus under cabinet lighting on kitchen floor, making a great night light. WOW in addition this unit has it's own full size washer/dryer in store room with added storage. Furniture conveys at no extra cost. HOA fee covers all outside maintenance including roof, HVAC and water heater, It also covers watter, sewer, trash pickup, and community pool.

12. 2021-05-27
    listed $105,000 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Park at your front door, lovely Villa. Great location close to beautiful, green park area. Villa boasts ceiling fans, gorgeous, easy caare laminate flooring, SW paint, newer low E windows, attractive security door, and entry door wtih low E glass and built in blinds. Kitchen with gas stove, lots of cabinets with under cabinet lightening and as added bonus under cabinet lighting on kitchen floor, making a great night light. WOW in addition this unit has it's own full size washer/dryer in store room with added storage. Furniture conveys at no extra cost. HOA fee covers all outside maintenance including roof, HVAC and water heater, It also covers watter, sewer, trash pickup, and community pool.

13. 2017-11-27
    soldstatus $62,000 Closed
14. 2015-03-04
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed
15. 2014-09-15
    historical
16. 2014-09-13
    listed $42,000 Active
17. 2006-03-31
    soldstatus $85,000
18. 2005-10-18
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$1,410
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − HOA: −$4,464
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable loss: −$644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$155
• After-tax cash flow: $779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-13 Listed $94,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-25 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-25 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-13 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-09 Listed $119,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-07-13 Sold (MLS) $112,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-05-31 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-05-27 Listed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-11-27 Sold (MLS) $62,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-03-04 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MLSSAZ
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2014-09-13 Listed $42,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-03-31 Sold (MLS) $85,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-10-18 Listed $85,000 MLSSAZ