14543 W Marcus Dr · Surprise, AZ 85374

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1999 5,995 sqft lot Est $320k · 14% under $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DISCOVER COMFORT, STYLE, AND VALUE IN THIS MOVE-IN READY HOME PRICED UNDER $300K. Meticulously maintained and thoughtfully updated, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an ideal blend of functionality and modern finishes in an all-ages community with a low HOA of just $47.36/month. Step inside to find upgraded cabinetry, beautiful granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new carpet installed throughout in 2026, creating a fresh and inviting interior ready for its next owner. The spacious primary suite features a walk-in closet, while the open living areas provide comfortable everyday living and easy entertaining. Outside, the backyard showcases low-maintenance desert landsca

Key facts

• Upgraded cabinetry
• Walk in closet
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• UPGRADED CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET
• FRESHLY PAINTED GARAGE WALLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with $48 monthly fee; HOA fee covers grounds maintenance; Community features include proximity to bus stop and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; Garage with opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile/concrete roof
• Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Block fencing; City-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Non-laminate countertops; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Full bath in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,510 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.38%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14543 W Marcus Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	0mo	$310,000	$277	100
17176 N Winding Trl	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,097 (-2%)	2mo	$285,000	$260	71
14719 W Ely Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+7%)	1mo	$355,000	$296	70
17233 N Winding Trl	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,081 (-4%)	4mo	$280,000	$259	69
14566 W Zuni Trl	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (+10%)	2mo	$297,000	$241	64
14822 W Lamoille Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+7%)	8mo	$350,000	$291	62
18131 N Skyhawk Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+7%)	7mo	$350,300	$292	62
14751 W Willow Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+7%)	3mo	$330,000	$275	61
17115 N Princess Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+7%)	3mo	$380,000	$316	59
14235 W Shawnee Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+15%)	4mo	$367,750	$286	52
14306 W Kiowa Trl	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (+15%)	3mo	$387,500	$301	51
18717 N Red Mountain Way	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (+6%)	5mo	$245,000	$207	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-45,314
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-56,953
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,133

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $166	+0% $88	+5% $11	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $0	+0% $88	+5% $177	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $158	base $88	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17927 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,813	$1.84	0d	8	0.14mi
14155 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,690	$1.98	0d	12	0.37mi
14817 W Juneberry Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,800	$1.62	26d	1	0.38mi
18139 N Skyhawk Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,835	$1.53	45d	1	0.41mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$3,750	$2.79	6d	8	0.42mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$3,750	$3.14	0d	6	0.42mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$3,750	$2.79	13d	9	0.42mi
17229 N Zuni Trl Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,400	$1.70	0d	1	0.43mi
17923 N Reno Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,695	$1.32	3d	1	0.52mi
14300 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	946	$1,948	$2.06	14d	2	0.55mi
15032 W Jackpot Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	923	$1,600	$1.73	26d	1	0.59mi
18614 N Summerbreeze Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	20d	1	0.63mi
16945 N Stadium Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,966	$1.99	0d	22	0.64mi
14300 W Bell Rd Unit NA Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,900	$2.03	45d	1	0.64mi
16830 N 141st Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1273	$2,099	$1.65	0d	13	0.83mi
16601 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1425	$2,199	$1.54	5d	1	0.85mi
16601 N Parkview Pl #120 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1420	$2,225	$1.57	7d	1	0.85mi
16830 N 141st Ave Unit B2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,849	$1.49	45d	1	0.85mi
16830 N 141st Ave Unit B1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,799	$1.50	45d	1	0.85mi
16830 N 141st Ave Unit 3A Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,099	$1.56	21d	1	0.85mi
16485 N Stadium Way Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,024	$2.00	0d	44	0.91mi
15306 W Eureka Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,999	$1.55	45d	1	0.92mi
17838 N Navarro Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,800	$2.45	45d	1	0.96mi
15042 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,800	$1.98	45d	1	0.96mi
16431 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$3,285	$3.27	0d	129	1.00mi
15033 W Home Run Dr Unit 1545708P Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,419	$1.73	16d	1	1.16mi
16671 N Litchfield Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,949	$1.99	0d	20	1.17mi
13635 W Utica Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1084	$2,750	$2.54	45d	1	1.22mi
16682 N West Point Pkwy Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,814	$1.86	3d	14	1.25mi
13766 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,835	$1.41	45d	1	1.27mi
16230 N Litchfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1081	$2,362	$2.19	0d	45	1.30mi
16630 N Reems Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$2,050	$2.07	0d	11	1.44mi
15510 N La Cometa Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$2,849	$2.70	0d	18	1.47mi
15724 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,800	$1.48	26d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,815 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$848/yr (+$71/mo · 87.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $1,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+12.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Sold (MLS) $310,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $275,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.