2107 Avensong Ln #104 · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$199,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,253 sqft · Condo public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2007

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Town Home in Gated Community. Home has open living area clean updated Kitchen & baths, single car garage. Complex has: Clubhouse, Pool, Fitness Center & Landscaping. This Area Is Located Approximately 1 Mile From The Beach & Close To Area Shopping & Restaurants. (All info taken from appraiser site & sizes approx. - Please verify if important)

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open-concept kitchen
• Public beach access

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PUBLIC BEACH ACCESS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with gated community and community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Security: Gated community access
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story building; Entry level is first floor; Located in a gated community
• Construction: Steel frame construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on the second floor; Additional bedroom(s) located on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Living room on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the second floor; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $200k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,789 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.14%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,136
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $12,857
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $890/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $446	-5% $390	+0% $333	+5% $276	+10% $220
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $256	+0% $333	+5% $410	+10% $487
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $384	base $333	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,250	$2.07	15d	18	0.08mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	15d	1	0.27mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	15d	1	0.27mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,200	$1.43	15d	2	0.29mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	15d	1	0.31mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	15d	1	0.42mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,792	$1.86	15d	12	0.43mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	23d	1	0.44mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	23d	1	0.45mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	15d	1	0.47mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	23d	1	0.49mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	23d	1	0.54mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,940	$1.91	15d	41	0.57mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.59mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	23d	1	0.68mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	23d	1	0.73mi
8623 N Lagoon Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.96mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	23d	1	0.97mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$1,900	$1.34	15d	6	0.97mi
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	15d	1	0.99mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	15d	1	1.15mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	15d	1	1.23mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,651	$1.60	15d	12	1.30mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	23d	1	1.34mi
9902 S Thomas Dr Unit 1354966P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,970	$1.56	15d	1	1.41mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	23d	1	1.42mi
9815 S Thomas Dr Unit 1523339P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$4,018	$3.19	23d	1	1.44mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$769/yr (+$64/mo · 86.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$890
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$176
• After-tax cash flow: $3,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+101.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $199,900 CPARMLS
• 2015-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-30 Sold (MLS) $92,000 CPARMLS
• 2015-04-30 Listed $99,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $890 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.