207 S Cedar St · Leonard, TX 75452

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1920 0.28 ac lot $158/sqft · at area comps Est $216k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in the heart of Leonard! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on a spacious corner lot just a short distance from downtown. Bring your vision and a little TLC to transform this house into something special - whether you’re an investor or a buyer looking to create your dream home. The information provided is considered reliable, yet not guaranteed. Buyers are advised to verify all details and conduct thorough due diligence.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($863/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in Leonard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#867 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Leonard ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #347 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,270
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -30.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 S Cedar St	0.11mi	3/2.0	933 (-2%)	17mo	$174,000	$186	77
605 E Hunt St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	968 (+2%)	4mo	$136,000	$140	71
405 E Grayson St	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	872 (-8%)	14mo	$179,000	$205	60
304 N Connett St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-7%)	6mo	$60,000	$68	58
306 W Houston St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,025 (+8%)	12mo	$167,500	$163	58
600 N Main St	0.48mi	2/1.5 (-1)	966 (+2%)	16mo	$174,900	$181	54
403 E Hackberry St	0.67mi	3/1.5	960 (+1%)	14mo	$115,000	$120	54
100 E Bois D'arc	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (+8%)	9mo	$175,000	$171	45
214 E Thomas St	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (+12%)	23mo	$183,000	$172	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $34,013
• Equity at exit: $79,503

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $101,568
• Equity at exit: $132,865

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75452

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,391/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,327

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-04-12
    listed $150,000 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in the heart of Leonard! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on a spacious corner lot just a short distance from downtown. Bring your vision and a little TLC to transform this house into something special - whether you’re an investor or a buyer looking to create your dream home. The information provided is considered reliable, yet not guaranteed. Buyers are advised to verify all details and conduct thorough due diligence.

18. 2020-04-15
    soldstatus
19. 2002-07-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,391 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$29/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,391
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$387
• After-tax cash flow: $1,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leonard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827210
• Math proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,822
• Composite: 35.69/100
• National rank: #4872
• State rank: #347 of 826 in TX

Livability — Leonard

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #867
• US rank: #15602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leonard, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,949

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,423 people
• By 2030: 33,035 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 32,250 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 31,462 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 29,447 · -11.9%
• By 2100: 25,459 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.4) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.8pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -67.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.4 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+52.5 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.39%
• Current HPI: 284.4928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2020-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,391 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.