12358 Gainsborough Dr · Houston, TX 77031

$280,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1974 0.32 ac lot Est $281k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Goodwin & Co; Association fee $600 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One primary bedroom on the first floor (entry level); Garage apartment
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1974; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Paved driveway; Subdivision setting; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Primary bathroom on the first floor; Second-floor bedrooms (two 15x12, one 11x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Pantry; Pots & Pan drawers; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Tub/shower combo; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Welch Middle (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 645 students, 97% FRL); Westbury H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,243 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $280k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,502
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12011 Chessington Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,020 (+0%)	2mo	$280,000	$139	74
12327 Welland Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,011 (-0%)	6mo	$245,000	$122	71
12531 Lancelot Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,024 (+0%)	1mo	$291,000	$144	70
9710 Ravensworth Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,179 (+8%)	7mo	$295,000	$135	69
12207 Chartwell Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,855 (-8%)	0mo	$259,999	$140	68
9566 Ravensworth Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,049 (+2%)	13mo	$235,000	$115	68
12310 Vanderheath Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,842 (-9%)	4mo	$220,000	$119	62
12411 Caren Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,847 (-8%)	2mo	$269,900	$146	56
9578 W Airport Blvd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (-12%)	6mo	$240,000	$136	55
12015 Manorgate Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,925 (-5%)	11mo	$325,000	$169	47
11602 Dover St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-2%)	14mo	$598,000	$301	46
11702 N Petersham Dr SE	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,319 (+15%)	13mo	$270,000	$116	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $10,503
• Equity at exit: $86,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $69,774
• Equity at exit: $108,482

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77031

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$531 /mo · $6,378/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,742

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12700 Stafford Rd Stafford, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$1,780	$1.58	2d	14	0.68mi
11101 W Airport Blvd Stafford, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1112	$4,366	$3.93	24d	39	1.04mi
11117 Signal Way Stafford, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1143	$3,662	$3.20	12d	83	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   listed $280,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,378 · $531/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,378 · $531/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$6,378
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,890
• − Management: −$2,890
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$1,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$446
• After-tax cash flow: $2,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 15,740

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 25% Black 20% White 14% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.38%
• Current HPI: 235.9144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+308.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,378 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.