Palmetto Plan · Maineville, OH 45039

$403,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 358 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Palmetto is one of Arbor Homes' newest and most flexible floorplans - offering everything you could want in a new construction home. With multiple elevation styles, optional basements, and the choice of a full front porch or breezeway, The Palmetto can easily be tailored to your lifestyle. Step inside to a spacious front living area that can serve as a formal dining room or quiet office with optional double doors. As you move through the home, you'll notice the open and inviting layout designed for both comfort and functionality. The chef-inspired kitchen features an L-shaped layout with a large island, walk-in pantry, and abundant cabinetry for storage. Enjoy meals in the café or add an optional sunroom to enjoy natural light year-round. The great room offers plenty of space for gatherings, while the rear study provides a quiet workspace that can be converted into a guest suite with a full bath. Upstairs, four bedrooms, a second-floor laundry, and a spacious loft provide flexibility for family living. Choose the optional fifth bedroom in place of the loft for added space. The luxurious primary suite includes a walk-in closet and optional bath upgrades such as a tile shower or deluxe garden tub. Visit an Arbor Homes community today to learn how you can make The Palmetto your own.

Key facts

• Study
• Full front porch
• Breezeway

Tags

• FULL FRONT PORCH
• BREEZEWAY
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND
• OPTIONAL SUNROOM
• STUDY

🏗️ New construction. The $403,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $415,667.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $404k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#529 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Little Miami Primary School (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #376 of 1,584 statewide, top 24%, 855 students, 18% FRL); Little Miami Middle School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #143 of 654 statewide, top 23%, 1,279 students, 16% FRL); Little Miami High School (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #150 of 781 statewide, top 20%, 1,445 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $287,720 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,667
• List price: $403,990
• Delta: -2.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6154 Pondside Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,526 (-2%)	4mo	$474,250	$188	76
6772 Prairie View Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,688 (+4%)	5mo	$535,000	$199	69
959 Weeping Willow Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,305 (-11%)	7mo	$352,000	$153	68
1727 Amberwood Way	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,632 (+2%)	3mo	$520,000	$198	66
6804 Mossy Rock Ct	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,375 (-8%)	6mo	$415,000	$175	66
1430 Tecumseh Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,776 (+8%)	5mo	$552,000	$199	62
315 Indian Pointe Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,512 (-3%)	10mo	$412,000	$164	55
6879 Prairie View Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,286 (-11%)	3mo	$551,000	$241	55
1511 Indian Bluffs Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,444 (-5%)	6mo	$610,000	$250	54
1068 Beacon Way Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,200 (-15%)	5mo	$415,000	$189	48
1790 Amberwood Way	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,916 (+13%)	5mo	$565,000	$194	42
601 Eagles Nest Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,876 (+12%)	10mo	$365,000	$127	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $201,603
• Equity at exit: $374,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $656,176
• Equity at exit: $807,549

Cash invested: $116,387 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.4 mo (30%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $416,990 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 358 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 45039

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$520 /mo · $6,235/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,636

Max offer price $328,905

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-312	-5% $-456	+0% $-600	+5% $-743	+10% $-887
Rent	-10% $-827	-5% $-713	+0% $-600	+5% $-486	+10% $-372
Rate	-1.0pp $-390	-0.5pp $-494	base $-600	+0.5pp $-707	+1.0pp $-817

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,917
• Closing costs: $12,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6096 Driftwood Ct Maineville, OH	5.0	3.0	3392	$2,795	$0.82	0d	1	1.26mi
5826 Cedarwood Ct Maineville, OH	4.0	2.5	2220	$2,725	$1.23	0d	1	1.31mi
5986 Driftwood Ct Maineville, OH	4.0	2.5	2516	$2,836	$1.13	0d	1	1.33mi
233 Saddle Creek Ln Maineville, OH	3.0	2.5	1783	$2,270	$1.27	0d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $403,990 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $403,990 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $403,990 Active 356 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $403,990 Active 355 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $403,990 Active 354 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $403,990 Active 353 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $403,990 Active 352 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $403,990 Active 351 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $403,990 Active 350 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $403,990 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $403,990 Active 348 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $403,990 Active 347 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $403,990 Active 346 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $403,990 Active 340 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $403,990 Active 339 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $403,990 Active 338 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $403,990 Active 335 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $403,990 Active 333 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $403,990 Active 332 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $403,990 Active 331 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $403,990 Active 329 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $403,990 Active 328 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $403,990 Active 327 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $403,990 Active 326 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $403,990 Active 325 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $403,990 Active 324 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $403,990 Active 323 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $403,990 Active 322 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $403,990 Active 321 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $403,990 Active 320 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $403,990 Active 319 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $403,990 Active 318 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $403,990 Active 317 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $403,990 Active 316 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $403,990 Active 315 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $403,990 Active 314 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $403,990 Active 313 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $403,990 Active 312 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $403,990 Active 311 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $403,990 Active 310 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $403,990 Active 309 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $403,990 Active 308 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $403,990 Active 307 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $403,990 Active 304 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $403,990 Active 302 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $403,990 Active 301 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $403,990 Active 299 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $403,990 Active 297 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $403,990 Active 296 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $403,990 Active 295 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,284
• − Property taxes: −$6,235
• − Insurance: −$2,078
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,762
• − Management: −$2,762
• − Depreciation: −$12,092
• Taxable loss: −$14,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs needed and offers high ROI through updates like painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Little Miami Primary School A- OH #376/1,584 Nat'l #3,318/41,679 Middle Little Miami Middle School A OH #143/654 Nat'l #858/14,009 High Little Miami High School B OH #150/781 Nat'l #2,657/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Maineville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #9001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 248,603 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,335
• Household income: $108,794
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.63%
• Current HPI: 568.09
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-01 Listed $403,990 Zillow