92 Tupelo Ln · Conroe, TX 77304

$199,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2004 0.29 ac lot $181/sqft · 16% below area Est $237k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WHAT A BUY! CUSTOM BUILT ALL BRICK HOME ON . 28 ACRE CUL DE SAC LOT IN SOUGHT AFTER ARTESIAN! HOME IS LIKE NEW & INCLUDES FRIDGE, WASHER, & DRYER PLUS HIGH CEILINGS THROUGHOUT, INSET LIGHTING, NEW FIXTURES, BUILT-INS GALORE, PRETTY CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT, 2 INCH BLINDS, TONS OF INSULATION, DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS, & MUCH MORE! LARGE LIVING, SPACIOUS KITCHEN W/ BRKFAST BAR, INSIDE UTILITY, ROOMY DINING, LARGE BEDROOMS, AMPLE CLOSET SPACE, SPRINKLER SYSTEM, STORAGE BUILDING, QUIET AREA, LOW TAXES!

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is cleared and on a cul-de-sac with side yard
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first floor living); Built in 2004; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Storage area; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Built-in oven; Microwave; Disposal; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Home configured with 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rice El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 613 students, 69% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 34% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 756 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,503 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.12%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,930
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: -15.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Maple Ln	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (-1%)	17mo	$215,000	$197	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-48,922
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-75,269
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 756
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,016/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,748

Max offer price $165,639

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-79	-5% $-135	+0% $-192	+5% $-248	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-311	-5% $-251	+0% $-192	+5% $-132	+10% $-73
Rate	-1.0pp $-91	-0.5pp $-141	base $-192	+0.5pp $-243	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Magnolia Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	23d	1	0.39mi
2490 S Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1220	$1,730	$1.42	0d	2	0.76mi
2422 S Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,000	$2.02	0d	54	1.02mi
3406 North Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,425	$1.34	45d	1	1.12mi
3400 N Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$1,344	$1.39	0d	17	1.19mi
3306 North Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	706	$1,050	$1.49	45d	1	1.20mi
3300 N Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$1,386	$1.44	0d	32	1.30mi
2951 North Loop 336 W Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,277	$1.15	4d	1	1.36mi
2951 North Loop 336 W Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,310	$1.18	0d	1	1.36mi
2951 North Loop 336 W Unit 3008 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,269	$1.15	0d	1	1.36mi
2951 North Loop 336 W Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,320	$1.19	13d	1	1.37mi
2957 North Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	45d	1	1.38mi
650 Sgt Ed Holcomb Blvd N Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$1,766	$1.53	0d	107	1.42mi
1200 Gladstell St Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	723	$1,412	$1.95	26d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,500 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $199,500 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $215,000 Active 782-char remark
17. 2013-04-24
    soldstatus
18. 2013-04-12
    soldstatus Sold 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    WHAT A BUY! CUSTOM BUILT ALL BRICK HOME ON . 28 ACRE CUL DE SAC LOT IN SOUGHT AFTER ARTESIAN! HOME IS LIKE NEW & INCLUDES FRIDGE, WASHER, & DRYER PLUS HIGH CEILINGS THROUGHOUT, INSET LIGHTING, NEW FIXTURES, BUILT-INS GALORE, PRETTY CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT, 2 INCH BLINDS, TONS OF INSULATION, DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS, & MUCH MORE! LARGE LIVING, SPACIOUS KITCHEN W/ BRKFAST BAR, INSIDE UTILITY, ROOMY DINING, LARGE BEDROOMS, AMPLE CLOSET SPACE, SPRINKLER SYSTEM, STORAGE BUILDING, QUIET AREA, LOW TAXES!

19. 2013-03-20
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    WHAT A BUY! CUSTOM BUILT ALL BRICK HOME ON . 28 ACRE CUL DE SAC LOT IN SOUGHT AFTER ARTESIAN! HOME IS LIKE NEW & INCLUDES FRIDGE, WASHER, & DRYER PLUS HIGH CEILINGS THROUGHOUT, INSET LIGHTING, NEW FIXTURES, BUILT-INS GALORE, PRETTY CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT, 2 INCH BLINDS, TONS OF INSULATION, DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS, & MUCH MORE! LARGE LIVING, SPACIOUS KITCHEN W/ BRKFAST BAR, INSIDE UTILITY, ROOMY DINING, LARGE BEDROOMS, AMPLE CLOSET SPACE, SPRINKLER SYSTEM, STORAGE BUILDING, QUIET AREA, LOW TAXES!

20. 2013-03-12
    status Option Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    WHAT A BUY! CUSTOM BUILT ALL BRICK HOME ON . 28 ACRE CUL DE SAC LOT IN SOUGHT AFTER ARTESIAN! HOME IS LIKE NEW & INCLUDES FRIDGE, WASHER, & DRYER PLUS HIGH CEILINGS THROUGHOUT, INSET LIGHTING, NEW FIXTURES, BUILT-INS GALORE, PRETTY CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT, 2 INCH BLINDS, TONS OF INSULATION, DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS, & MUCH MORE! LARGE LIVING, SPACIOUS KITCHEN W/ BRKFAST BAR, INSIDE UTILITY, ROOMY DINING, LARGE BEDROOMS, AMPLE CLOSET SPACE, SPRINKLER SYSTEM, STORAGE BUILDING, QUIET AREA, LOW TAXES!

21. 2013-03-06
    listed $87,500 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    WHAT A BUY! CUSTOM BUILT ALL BRICK HOME ON . 28 ACRE CUL DE SAC LOT IN SOUGHT AFTER ARTESIAN! HOME IS LIKE NEW & INCLUDES FRIDGE, WASHER, & DRYER PLUS HIGH CEILINGS THROUGHOUT, INSET LIGHTING, NEW FIXTURES, BUILT-INS GALORE, PRETTY CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT, 2 INCH BLINDS, TONS OF INSULATION, DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS, & MUCH MORE! LARGE LIVING, SPACIOUS KITCHEN W/ BRKFAST BAR, INSIDE UTILITY, ROOMY DINING, LARGE BEDROOMS, AMPLE CLOSET SPACE, SPRINKLER SYSTEM, STORAGE BUILDING, QUIET AREA, LOW TAXES!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,016 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,651 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$635/yr (+$53/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$3,016
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$5,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $-903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+128.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2013-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-03-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-03-06 Listed $87,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,016 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.