13927 Meda Dr · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$149,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 324 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER!! Don't miss this one! Welcome to this updated 3-br, 2-ba home in Tall Pines, an all-age community. Open layout with upgraded flooring, fresh paint, ceiling fans & central heat & air for year-round comfort. Step outside to a full-length Trex deck overlooking a peaceful setting overlooking the forest perfect for coffee, evening relaxation, or hosting. There's room outside to add a garden or a shop (with park approval). Community amenities, a nice swimming pool & clubhouse to gather & unwind. This home offers a great mix of comfort, convenience, & natural beauty. This turn key gem is one you don't want to miss!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1990
• Listed 324 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions and address: 13927 Meda Dr, Grass Valley, CA 95949
• Financial info: Monthly land lease applies
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Property is in a land-lease community (land lease required)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street covered parking (no garage); Total parking for 2 vehicles
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer system; Propane available; Individual electric and gas meters; Internet and DSL available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) located in a park; Built in 1990; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Manufacturer: Golden West Homes
• Exterior features: Patio awning, carport awning and porch awning; Covered patio and covered deck; Backyard and front yard with a secluded setting and regular-shaped lot; Greenbelt nearby; Shed(s) for additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing gas oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Self-cleaning oven; Pantry cabinet; Synthetic countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Wood and simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with double sinks and tub/shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans; Tankless water heater
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Covered deck and covered patio with railings; Window screens and partial dual-pane windows; Pantry cabinet and synthetic countertops; Dining and family areas combined; 8 total rooms including living room, dining room, kitchen, laundry, storage and master bedroom; Storage area / shed(s) on property; Pets allowed (cats, dogs, service animals permitted)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with hookups only; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pleasant Ridge Union Elementary (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #214 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,472 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.54%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,184
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13927 Meda Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,368 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$102	99
10080 Lode Line Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+8%)	0mo	$135,000	$91	83
10064 Lode Line Way #30	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-4%)	9mo	$120,000	$91	81
10043 Lode Line Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	8mo	$179,000	$143	74
14338 St Hwy 49 #79	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+5%)	5mo	$120,000	$83	68
14338 State Highway 49 #65	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-12%)	6mo	$75,000	$63	60
10150 Stone Arch Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-2%)	1mo	$55,000	$41	59
10186 Stone Arch Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (+2%)	10mo	$87,500	$63	52
10042 Grinding Rock Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+5%)	5mo	$90,000	$63	52
10040 Stone Arch Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+5%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	49
10086 Grinding Rock Dr #208	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+12%)	1mo	$75,000	$49	47
10192 Stone Arch Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+9%)	7mo	$74,000	$50	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $43,634
• Equity at exit: $22,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $125,467
• Equity at exit: $12,917

Cash invested: $41,832 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,241/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $149,400

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,168	-5% $1,116	+0% $1,065	+5% $1,013	+10% $961
Rent	-10% $855	-5% $960	+0% $1,065	+5% $1,169	+10% $1,274
Rate	-1.0pp $1,140	-0.5pp $1,103	base $1,065	+0.5pp $1,026	+1.0pp $986

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,350
• Closing costs: $4,482
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,369
• − Property taxes: −$2,241
• − Insurance: −$747
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,548
• − Management: −$2,548
• − Depreciation: −$4,346
• Taxable income: $11,054
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,653
• After-tax cash flow: $10,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Ridge Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0630930
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,524
• Composite: 36.75/100
• National rank: #4580
• State rank: #214 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $189 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.