2925 Old Kings Rd · Cementon, NY 12414

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,707 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1948 2.10 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2925 Old Kings Rd, a cozy and well-maintained home nestled in the scenic Catskill area. Built in 1948, the home features a timeless design, with a layout that offers plenty of room for relaxation and entertainment. Whether you’re seeking a serene retreat or a family home with room to grow, 2925 Old Kings Rd is the perfect place to make your own.

Key facts

• 2.1 acre lot
• Built 1948
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Unfinished basement; Partial, unfinished attic; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Catskill Central School District (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #429 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Catskill Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 574 students, 41% FRL); Catskill Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 303 students, 45% FRL); Catskill Senior High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 400 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $220k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $211,415 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.86%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,592
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2925 Old Kings Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,800 (+5%)	10mo	$100,000	$56	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $125,966
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $366,295
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12414

• Home prices YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,952/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,993

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $158	+0% $96	+5% $33	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $12	+0% $96	+5% $179	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $151	base $96	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 294-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $220,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,952 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,952 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,952
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$591
• After-tax cash flow: $1,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Catskill Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606720
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,960
• Composite: 40.63/100
• National rank: #3685
• State rank: #429 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cementon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Greene County · 10,169 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 10,169
• Household income: $73,036
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Mexico
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.47%
• Current HPI: 494.3394
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-30.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $220,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Sold (MLS) $100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-25 Listed $315,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,952 · +22.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.