1512 Mainsail Dr #5 · Marco Shores-Hammock Bay, FL 34114

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 966 sqft · Condo public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1983 $435/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy comfortable Southwest Florida living in this 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence in Tropic Schooner at Marco Shores. This inviting condominium offers a functional layout designed for easy everyday living and entertaining. The living and opens to a private screened lanai creating the perfect space to relax and enjoy peaceful tropical breezes, while the kitchen/dining area opens up to a small outdoor private patio. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, while the split-bedroom floor plan offers privacy for both owners and guests. Impact windows and doors provide added peace of mind and energy efficiency. Tropic Schooner residents enjoy desirable amenities and a convenient location

Key facts

• Convenient location
• $435 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• PRIVATE SCREENED LANAI
• SMALL OUTDOOR PRIVATE PATIO
• IMPACT WINDOWS AND DOORS
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No commercial use restriction
• HOA & community: Monthly condominium fee of $435; Annual recurring fees approximately $5,220; One-time fees $150; Professional management; Maintenance covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, repairs, reserves, sewer and water; Community amenities: community pool, BBQ/picnic area, bike storage, bocce court, pickleball, shuffleboard, tennis court, vehicle wash area; Non-gated community; Complex has 240 units; building has 16 units

Exterior

• Parking: Vehicle wash area (community amenity)
• Security: Impact resistant doors; Impact resistant windows
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise (1–3) building; 2-story building; Rear exposure to the east; Located in MARCO SHORES development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built in 1983
• Exterior features: Tennis court; Landscaped area view; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator/ice maker; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Pantry; Screened lanai/porch; Guest bath; Guest room; Laundry in residence
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (19.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,508 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.62%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,558
• Equity at exit: $54,606

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-38,431
• Equity at exit: $52,601

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 900
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,211/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,114

Max offer price $201,508

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-132	-5% $-203	+0% $-274	+5% $-345	+10% $-415
Rent	-10% $-493	-5% $-383	+0% $-274	+5% $-165	+10% $-55
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-210	base $-274	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1510 Mainsail Dr #7 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$4,500	$4.66	14d	1	0.03mi
1516 Mainsail Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$1,900	$1.97	14d	1	0.04mi
1522 Mainsail Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,895	$2.11	14d	1	0.09mi
1315 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	828	$2,075	$2.51	14d	2	0.35mi
1315 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	828	$2,075	$2.51	24d	2	0.35mi
1305 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	871	$1,912	$2.19	21d	2	0.41mi
1305 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	925	$1,862	$2.01	24d	2	0.41mi
1165 Mainsail Dr #603 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	843	$3,000	$3.56	24d	1	0.51mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $249,900 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,211 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,211 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,211
• − Insurance: −$6,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,657
• − Management: −$2,657
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,720
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marco Shores-Hammock Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marco Shores-Hammock Bay, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+284.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $249,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1989-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,211 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.