33408 N Falcon Trl · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$399,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,387 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2007 5,210 sqft lot $168/sqft · 15% below area Est $473k · 16% under $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy San Tan Mountain views the moment you arrive at this well-designed San Tan Valley home. An extended driveway provides extra parking, and mature trees frame a welcoming front patio. Inside, the layout offers two living areas, a spacious kitchen with island and pantry, plus a downstairs den and half bath. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a large primary suite with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms share a dual-sink shared bath, and the upstairs laundry adds everyday convenience. The backyard features a covered patio, extended concrete, artificial turf, and space for a gazebo-perfect for relaxing and enjoying sunset mountain views. Located minutes from San Tan Mountain Regional Park, with access to a resort-style community offering a pool, fitness center, walking paths, playgrounds, and sports courts.

Key facts

• Landscaped backyard
• Low-maintenance turf
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• LOW-MAINTENANCE TURF
• LARGE SHADE TREE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-681 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (43.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 489 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $400k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,421 (43.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,313
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -15.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4456 W Pelotazo Way	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,123 (-11%)	1mo	$435,000	$205	66
34155 N Tanglewood Pass	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,549 (+7%)	5mo	$635,800	$249	62
4268 W Dayflower Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,116 (-11%)	1mo	$514,300	$243	60
4171 W White Canyon Rd	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,611 (+9%)	3mo	$465,000	$178	58
34316 N Timberlake Mnr	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,232 (-6%)	4mo	$539,999	$242	57
34344 N Timberlake Mnr	0.58mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,489 (+4%)	5mo	$615,000	$247	53
4073 W Brenley Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,344 (-2%)	4mo	$420,000	$179	53
4061 W Brenley Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,232 (-6%)	3mo	$485,000	$217	50
4087 W Brenley Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,232 (-6%)	4mo	$472,000	$211	49
4099 W Brenley Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,232 (-6%)	5mo	$420,000	$188	49
4153 W Brenley Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,653 (+11%)	3mo	$465,000	$175	40
4139 W Brenley Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,653 (+11%)	5mo	$535,000	$202	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $174,308
• Equity at exit: $360,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $547,114
• Equity at exit: $776,918

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,136

Max offer price $279,672

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-454	-5% $-567	+0% $-681	+5% $-794	+10% $-907
Rent	-10% $-860	-5% $-770	+0% $-681	+5% $-591	+10% $-501
Rate	-1.0pp $-479	-0.5pp $-579	base $-681	+0.5pp $-784	+1.0pp $-890

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4590 W Foldwing DR Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,449	$1.36	5d	1	0.07mi
4251 W Dayflower Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,490	$0.97	7d	1	0.33mi
4504 W Stonecrop Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,075	$1.15	7d	1	0.41mi
3849 W South Butte Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,846	$0.98	45d	1	0.60mi
3792 W Santa Cruz Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1852	$1,795	$0.97	45d	1	0.61mi
3877 W Naomi Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2010	$1,850	$0.92	7d	1	0.64mi
3846 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	3.0	2422	$1,949	$0.80	26d	1	0.71mi
33889 N Barbara Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1868	$1,975	$1.06	7d	1	0.73mi
34113 N Alison Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,089	$0.86	5d	1	0.75mi
3369 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2617	$2,715	$1.04	1d	1	0.81mi
3569 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,550	$0.91	26d	1	0.83mi
33993 N Danja Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,450	$1.23	45d	1	0.85mi
3194 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1925	$1,908	$0.99	45d	1	0.92mi
3162 W Sunshine Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	0.93mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	14d	1	1.02mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	17d	1	1.02mi
3541 Dreamy Draw Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	1918	$2,700	$1.41	26d	1	1.04mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,955	$1.11	13d	1	1.07mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,860	$1.05	1d	1	1.07mi
3439 W Oil Well Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	45d	1	1.10mi
34973 N Augite Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2614	$4,350	$1.66	0d	1	1.10mi
33897 N Wash View Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,980	$1.15	5d	1	1.12mi
35032 N Barrel Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2213	$3,900	$1.76	0d	1	1.12mi
33856 N Cherry Creek Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1928	$1,850	$0.96	45d	1	1.13mi
2899 W White Canyon Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,950	$0.98	5d	1	1.14mi
4165 W Monika Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	45d	1	1.19mi
2699 W Camp River Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,975	$1.12	45d	1	1.22mi
4565 W Hunter Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,370	$1.16	1d	1	1.26mi
2828 Patagonia Ct Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	1.28mi
4001 W Brass Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,750	$1.13	45d	1	1.30mi
33412 N Windmill Run San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2764	$2,595	$0.94	7d	1	1.32mi
4287 W Jeanette Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	20d	1	1.32mi
4265 W Janie St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,100	$1.14	26d	1	1.38mi
2906 W Angel Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	2604	$1,580	$0.61	17d	1	1.38mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	1d	1	1.39mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,000	$1.09	13d	1	1.39mi
2822 W Blue River Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,395	$1.49	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $399,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $409,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $409,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $409,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $409,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $409,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $409,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $409,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $409,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $409,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $409,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $409,000 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    Enjoy San Tan Mountain views the moment you arrive at this well-designed San Tan Valley home. An extended driveway provides extra parking, and mature trees frame a welcoming front patio. Inside, the layout offers two living areas, a spacious kitchen with island and pantry, plus a downstairs den and half bath. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a large primary suite with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms share a dual-sink shared bath, and the upstairs laundry adds everyday convenience. The backyard features a covered patio, extended concrete, artificial turf, and space for a gazebo-perfect for relaxing and enjoying sunset mountain views. Located minutes from San Tan Mountain Regional Park, with access to a resort-style community offering a pool, fitness center, walking paths, playgrounds, and sports courts.

17. 2026-01-23
    listed $420,000 Active 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    Enjoy San Tan Mountain views the moment you arrive at this well-designed San Tan Valley home. An extended driveway provides extra parking, and mature trees frame a welcoming front patio. Inside, the layout offers two living areas, a spacious kitchen with island and pantry, plus a downstairs den and half bath. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a large primary suite with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms share a dual-sink shared bath, and the upstairs laundry adds everyday convenience. The backyard features a covered patio, extended concrete, artificial turf, and space for a gazebo-perfect for relaxing and enjoying sunset mountain views. Located minutes from San Tan Mountain Regional Park, with access to a resort-style community offering a pool, fitness center, walking paths, playgrounds, and sports courts.

18. 2008-04-11
    soldstatus $190,184 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    RECEIVE $10,000 BUILDER INCENTIVE WHEN PREFERRED LENDER IS USED!!! Plan 2335 offers 9-foot ceilings, interior two-tone paint, an elegant master suite with walk in closet, 2 additional bedrooms, spacious den, family room, formal living and dining room, plus a 2-car garage, and a spacious covered patio. The designer kitchen includes stainless and black appliances, oak cabinets with crown molding, recessed can lighting and a spacious island work station. The Elite Brand offers 14 SEER AC, Blown-in-Blanket R21 wall insulation & R38 ceiling, Low E dual pane windows, fresh air intake, jump ducts,programmable thermostats & post tension foundation & the ENERGY STAR label.

19. 2008-03-06
    historical 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    RECEIVE $10,000 BUILDER INCENTIVE WHEN PREFERRED LENDER IS USED!!! Plan 2335 offers 9-foot ceilings, interior two-tone paint, an elegant master suite with walk in closet, 2 additional bedrooms, spacious den, family room, formal living and dining room, plus a 2-car garage, and a spacious covered patio. The designer kitchen includes stainless and black appliances, oak cabinets with crown molding, recessed can lighting and a spacious island work station. The Elite Brand offers 14 SEER AC, Blown-in-Blanket R21 wall insulation & R38 ceiling, Low E dual pane windows, fresh air intake, jump ducts,programmable thermostats & post tension foundation & the ENERGY STAR label.

20. 2008-02-12
    listed $194,184 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    RECEIVE $10,000 BUILDER INCENTIVE WHEN PREFERRED LENDER IS USED!!! Plan 2335 offers 9-foot ceilings, interior two-tone paint, an elegant master suite with walk in closet, 2 additional bedrooms, spacious den, family room, formal living and dining room, plus a 2-car garage, and a spacious covered patio. The designer kitchen includes stainless and black appliances, oak cabinets with crown molding, recessed can lighting and a spacious island work station. The Elite Brand offers 14 SEER AC, Blown-in-Blanket R21 wall insulation & R38 ceiling, Low E dual pane windows, fresh air intake, jump ducts,programmable thermostats & post tension foundation & the ENERGY STAR label.

21. 2005-12-22
    soldstatus $8,111,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,639 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,182/yr (+$98/mo · 81.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$15,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,761
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-95.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $409,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $420,000 ARMLS
• 2008-04-11 Sold (MLS) $190,184 ARMLS
• 2008-03-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-02-12 Listed $194,184 ARMLS
• 2005-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $8,111,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.