1774 Military Rd #27 · Tonawanda Town, NY 14217

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 997 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition Est $59k · 45% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous new built double-wide is sure to impress in a great location! The exterior features a charming covered porch for your after work relaxing. Step inside to a bright and spacious living room, complete with upgraded carpet and recessed lighting that creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen is boasting elegant high-profile moldings, stylish upgraded countertops, and soft-close cabinets. The island countertop provides a cozy sitting area, perfect for casual dining, while modern sphere pendant lights enhance the contemporary feel. You'll find a stainless steel refrigerator, dishwasher, and oven range to meet all your culinary needs. Don’t miss the chance to make this beautiful home yours!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Soft-close cabinets
• Upgraded countertops

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• HIGH-PROFILE MOLDINGS
• UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• ISLAND COUNTERTOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.51%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,823
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1774 Military Rd #57	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+11%)	18mo	$64,900	$59	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $46,733
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $149,047
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14217

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	17d	1	0.14mi
36-46 Crowell Ct Unit 40 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	0.33mi
49 Tulane Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	17d	1	1.02mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	11d	1	1.09mi
52 Somerton Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	1.18mi
1974 Newell Ave Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	675	$1,185	$1.76	3d	3	1.19mi
1950 Sheridan Dr Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	704	$1,485	$2.11	1d	5	1.27mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	1d	9	1.32mi
3113 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1083	$1,200	$1.11	23d	1	1.41mi
268-360 Hinds St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	500	$1,214	$2.43	11d	1	1.46mi
52 Kenwood Rd Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    listed $85,000 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Gorgeous new built double-wide is sure to impress in a great location! The exterior features a charming covered porch for your after work relaxing. Step inside to a bright and spacious living room, complete with upgraded carpet and recessed lighting that creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen is boasting elegant high-profile moldings, stylish upgraded countertops, and soft-close cabinets. The island countertop provides a cozy sitting area, perfect for casual dining, while modern sphere pendant lights enhance the contemporary feel. You'll find a stainless steel refrigerator, dishwasher, and oven range to meet all your culinary needs. Don’t miss the chance to make this beautiful home yours!

15. 2025-12-31
    historical
16. 2025-10-12
    price $85,900
17. 2025-08-25
    status Active
18. 2025-08-25
    price $89,000
19. 2025-04-09
    listed $94,900 Active
20. 2025-02-04
    price $95,000
21. 2024-10-03
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,115
• After-tax cash flow: $7,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen and exterior, and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint and flooring updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,471
• Household income: $73,800
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.52%
• Current HPI: 330.7596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.76%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $85,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-25 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $89,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $94,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $95,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-03 Listed $99,000 WNYREIS