1123 16th St · Rockford, IL 61104

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,758 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 1952 6,534 sqft lot Est $171k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING LITTLE HOUSE NEEDS JUST A LITTLE TLC, BUT OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE. HARDWOOD FLOORS, 2 BEDROOMS MAIN FLOOR, EXPANDED ATTIC SITTING ROOM AND BEDROOM, BATH NEEDS SOME WORK AND AFFORDABLE COUNTERS COULD TRANSFORM THE KITCHEN. BASEMENT HAS REC ROOM AREA AND LITTLE WORKSHOP! GREAT 3 THREE CAR GARAGE. PRICED AT A QUICK SALE!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,530/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 1406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $135k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.49%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,526
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1123 16th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,758 (0%)	0mo	$125,000	$71	100
1130 16th St	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,734 (-1%)	1mo	$111,500	$64	86
2342 17th Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,726 (-2%)	1mo	$167,000	$97	73
2317 11th Ave	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,612 (-8%)	1mo	$166,000	$103	67
1610 Parmele St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,776 (+1%)	3mo	$78,500	$44	65
1846 2nd Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-3%)	1mo	$195,000	$114	60
1704 22nd St	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,821 (+4%)	2mo	$175,000	$96	59
634 13th St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+9%)	5mo	$100,000	$52	58
2703 18th Ave	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,817 (+3%)	2mo	$197,000	$108	53
1519 13th St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (-12%)	2mo	$166,000	$107	53
509 Shaw St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,528 (-13%)	5mo	$110,000	$72	49
131 S Chicago Ave	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,866 (+6%)	5mo	$192,000	$103	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,282
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $57,457
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61104

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,503/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $312	-5% $274	+0% $236	+5% $198	+10% $159
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $175	+0% $236	+5% $296	+10% $357
Rate	-1.0pp $304	-0.5pp $270	base $236	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1202 18th St Unit 3 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	14d	1	0.12mi
1004 15th St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1267	$1,450	$1.14	22d	1	0.16mi
333 S Gardiner Ave Unit AVE2 Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1306	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.62mi
1519 17th Ave Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	14d	1	0.63mi
2021 2nd Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,000	$0.80	14d	1	0.69mi
1231 11th Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1284	$1,450	$1.13	45d	1	0.69mi
708 29th St Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,600	$0.89	22d	1	1.02mi
2217 8th St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	45d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   historical Contingent - Continue to Show
3. 2026-04-19
   historical
4. 2026-03-28
   price $135,000
5. 2026-03-28
   price
6. 2026-02-19
   status Active
7. 2026-02-19
   status Active
8. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
9. 2026-02-17
   historical Contingent - No Showings
10. 2026-02-02
    price $125,000
11. 2026-02-02
    price
12. 2026-01-07
    listed $140,000 Active
13. 2026-01-07
    listed Active
14. 2014-06-30
    soldstatus $27,000 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    CHARMING LITTLE HOUSE NEEDS JUST A LITTLE TLC, BUT OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE. HARDWOOD FLOORS, 2 BEDROOMS MAIN FLOOR, EXPANDED ATTIC SITTING ROOM AND BEDROOM, BATH NEEDS SOME WORK AND AFFORDABLE COUNTERS COULD TRANSFORM THE KITCHEN. BASEMENT HAS REC ROOM AREA AND LITTLE WORKSHOP! GREAT 3 THREE CAR GARAGE. PRICED AT A QUICK SALE!

15. 2014-05-05
    listed $29,900 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    CHARMING LITTLE HOUSE NEEDS JUST A LITTLE TLC, BUT OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE. HARDWOOD FLOORS, 2 BEDROOMS MAIN FLOOR, EXPANDED ATTIC SITTING ROOM AND BEDROOM, BATH NEEDS SOME WORK AND AFFORDABLE COUNTERS COULD TRANSFORM THE KITCHEN. BASEMENT HAS REC ROOM AREA AND LITTLE WORKSHOP! GREAT 3 THREE CAR GARAGE. PRICED AT A QUICK SALE!

16. 2008-08-28
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,503 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,784 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,503
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$181
• After-tax cash flow: $2,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 17,222
• Household income: $33,772
• Rent vs Own: 62.2% rent · 37.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 233.0219
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.67%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+98.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-19 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $135,000 NWIAR
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — NWIAR
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-02-17 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $125,000 NWIAR
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $140,000 NWIAR
• 2014-06-30 Sold (MLS) $27,000 NWIAR
• 2014-05-05 Listed $29,900 NWIAR
• 2008-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,503 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.