6002 Grand Oaks Dr SE · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1990 7,192 sqft lot $65/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. S. E. WINTER HAVEN, FLORIDA * * HERE YOU OWN YOUR OWN LAND, SO NO LOT RENT * * THIS LOVELY 2 BEDROOM 2BATH HOME IS LOCATED IN THE WELL-MAINTAINED GARDEN GROVE OAKS COMMUNITY WITH A LOW $65 MONTHLY ASSOCIATION FEE- * * NEW ROOF IN 2022 * * , * * NEW AC IN 2022 * * , * * REPLUMBED IN 2019 * * , NEW WASHING MACHINE IN 2019, DOUBLE WIDE CARPORT/DRIVEWAY & STORAGE/TOOL ROOM & LARGE LOT. The light and bright kitchen with a breakfast bar & plenty of counter space is open to the living room & dining room. French doors exit from the living room to a side screened patio with vinyl windows. The primary bedroom includes a walk-in

Key facts

• Storage room
• Replumbed
• Large lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC
• REPLUMBED
• DOUBLE WIDE CARPORT
• STORAGE ROOM
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.17 acres); Lot is level, paved, in-county with asphalt road access
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $65); HOA includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, private road, and recreational facilities; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; weight limit ~30 lbs; number and size limits apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Guest parking; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single story; Crawlspace foundation; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Side porch; Awnings; French doors; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Metered sprinkler/irrigation equipment; Storage building; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Disposal; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Inside utility; Florida room (additional living space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.27%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,813
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $41,843
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $551	+0% $513	+5% $474	+10% $436
Rent	-10% $370	-5% $441	+0% $513	+5% $584	+10% $655
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $547	base $513	+0.5pp $478	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5608 Lake Fox Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	24d	1	0.59mi
1019 Mockingbird Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	15d	1	0.75mi
612 Heather Glen Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$2,000	$1.17	24d	1	0.78mi
1015 Lake Forest Blvd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,840	$1.98	3d	24	0.94mi
4025 Lake Ned Village Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,530	$1.49	3d	8	1.08mi
728 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	24d	1	1.17mi
616 Crystals Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1575	$1,900	$1.21	24d	1	1.18mi
3904 Osprey Pointe Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,950	$1.14	24d	1	1.29mi
36 Enclave Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,990	$1.30	24d	1	1.36mi
3110 Gowan Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,841	$1.83	15d	24	1.36mi
7903 Waterview Way Unit 7903 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,600	$1.72	24d	1	1.37mi
1707 Eagle Pond Dr Unit 1707 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,450	$1.43	24d	1	1.37mi
408 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,100	$1.43	24d	1	1.39mi
206 Kingshill Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,800	$1.23	3d	1	1.40mi
508 Eagle Pond Dr #508 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	24d	1	1.41mi
1202 Eagle Pond Dr Unit 1202 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,450	$1.43	15d	1	1.42mi
1101 Eagle Pond Dr #1101 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,400	$1.38	24d	1	1.44mi
7676 Carlton Arms Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	987	$1,508	$1.53	24d	1	1.45mi
3601 Cypress Gardens Rd Unit 6 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	24d	1	1.47mi
5202 Waterview Way #5202 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,750	$1.88	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$92/yr (+$8/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,018
• After-tax cash flow: $5,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,028 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.