8555 Route 9 · Elizabethtown, NY 12950

$80,000

None bd · None ba · 1,767 sqft · MultiFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 1850 ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This duplex is located on a large corner lot and has great potential. The one bedroom apt was recently occupied and would need very little to be ready for a tenant. The front unit needs considerable renovation. Both Units feature new windows. Property sold ''As Is, '' including any personal property on premises.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• New windows
• Built 1850

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed: $4,292

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Home design: Duplex (residential income property)
• Exterior features: Open parking available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $924 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $462/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#893 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.48%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $79,467
• Equity at exit: $47,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.41×
• Total profit: $188,481
• Equity at exit: $84,208

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12950

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $924

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $979	-5% $951	+0% $924	+5% $896	+10% $868
Rent	-10% $776	-5% $850	+0% $924	+5% $997	+10% $1,071
Rate	-1.0pp $964	-0.5pp $944	base $924	+0.5pp $903	+1.0pp $882

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$1,868
Total (2 units)			$1,869

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $80,000
17. 2026-02-12
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $10,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,503
• After-tax cash flow: $8,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #17325

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,183
• Population (ZIP): 701

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 10% Iranian 9%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.47%
• Current HPI: 294.9768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $80,000 ACVMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $90,000 ACVMLS