138 Salem Dr · Cromwell, CT 06416

$290,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,218 sqft · Condo public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom townhouse with 2.5 bathrooms, Gas heat, Central Air Conditioning

Key facts

• Built 1983
• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1983

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Interior features: Deck

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cromwell School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #63 of 153 in CT (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $151k; list at $290k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,304 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,517
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-63,656
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06416

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,243 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,546/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,452

Max offer price $260,830

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2316 Cromwell Hills Dr Unit 2316 Cromwell, CT	2.0	1.5	1057	$1,900	$1.80	3d	1	0.48mi
2211 Cromwell Hills Dr #2211 Cromwell, CT	2.0	1.5	1057	$1,900	$1.80	10d	1	0.48mi
2000 Cromwell Hills Dr Unit 2107 Cromwell, CT	2.0	1.5	1057	$1,975	$1.87	23d	1	0.50mi
150 Country Squire Dr Cromwell, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,950	$2.84	1d	5	1.07mi
113 Country Squire Dr Cromwell, CT	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	43d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $290,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    listed $290,000 Active 74-char remark
17. 2019-05-20
    soldstatus $151,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,546 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,876 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,330/yr (+$111/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$3,546
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,153
• − Management: −$2,153
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$7,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,696
• After-tax cash flow: $-285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cromwell School District
• NCES district ID: 0900990
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $80,252
• Composite: 49.39/100
• National rank: #2013
• State rank: #63 of 153 in CT

Livability — Cromwell

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Middlesex County · 63,941 people
• City population: 14,334
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• Population (ZIP): 14,334
• Household income: $110,596
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 188.0

Population outlook (Lower Connecticut River Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 188,651

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 6% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lower Connecticut River Valley

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 55.9% · R 42.4% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.38%
• Current HPI: 259.9702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+92.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $290,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,546 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.