27634 County Route 342, Lot 44 · Fort Drum, NY 13612

$98,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 2025 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

WOW! Be the first to own this brand new beautiful doublewide in a Park with an open floor plan and wonderful kitchen island where you can enjoy your favorite beverage with your besties or cook that gourmet meal you've always wanted! The walk-in pantry has all the room you would ever need for all those kitchen gadgets or just stock away for that "rainy day". Enjoy the master bathroom with a walk-in shower and walk-in closet! The two remaining bedrooms also have generous closet space. What great fun it is to sit on your new shaded deck watching the kids in the nearby playground or enjoying a snowball fight in your side yard! This home is centrally located between Watertown and For

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• MASTER BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Bath in primary bedroom; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#996 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, health & safety D.
• Indian River Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #502 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($681 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $97,022 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.95%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $55,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27298 State Route 342	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-9%)	11mo	$50,000	$44	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $61,881
• Equity at exit: $43,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.44×
• Total profit: $150,116
• Equity at exit: $65,361

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13612

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$123 /mo · $1,478/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $862

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $98,500 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,500 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,500 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,500 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $98,500 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,500 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,500 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,500 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 689-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $98,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$1,478
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $8,583
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,060
• After-tax cash flow: $7,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed, particularly to the exterior and landscaping. Painting and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some areas of the lawn appear overgrown
• Minor Exterior paint — Some areas of the siding appear faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some areas of the lawn appear overgrown	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior paint · Some areas of the siding appear faded	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,599
• Composite: 35.25/100
• National rank: #4977
• State rank: #502 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Drum

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #996
• US rank: #19459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,673
• Population (ZIP): 2,940

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Korean 3% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Current HPI: 415.9603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $98,500 UNYREIS