1114 Reed Ln · La Junta, CO 81050

$40,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 471 Days on market

Built 1981 980 sqft lot Est $42k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lot 49 in The Meadows Mobile Home Park in La Junta, Colorado! This recently updated 1981 single-wide manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, an open floor plan, and plenty of natural light throughout. Recent updates include a brand new picket fence, new lattice, a refreshed deck with new carpet, full exterior paint, ceiling repairs, and updated skirting. The home features vinyl siding, a covered deck, and a fully fenced yard—perfect for added privacy and outdoor enjoyment. Parking is convenient with a 1-car carport plus two additional off-street spaces. Located in a land-lease community, buyers will own the home and rent the lot. Current lot rent is $450/month; buy

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Open floor plan
• Fully fenced-in yard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• VINYL SIDING
• COVERED DECK
• FULLY FENCED-IN YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 980 (public records); Lot number 49
• HOA & community: Located in Meadows Mobile Home Park; Monthly land lease: $450 (lease expires December 31, 2025)

Exterior

• Parking: One carport space; Two off-street spaces (three parking spaces total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single-story (main level living); Owned by a corporation/trust
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Skirted with vinyl; Manufacture make: MARO; Approximately 70 feet long by 14 feet wide
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Full yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($877 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 4.1% in La Junta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#126 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• East Otero School District No. R1 (town): math 7% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #83 of 86 in CO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Junta Primary School (291 students, 72% FRL); La Junta Jr/Sr High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #307 of 381 statewide, top 82%, 539 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $280 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 471 days — a 12% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 471 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.72%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $41,580
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1405 W Sunset Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	960 (+4%)	8mo	$40,000	$42	82
1406 Sunrise Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	840 (-9%)	3mo	$37,500	$45	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $19,765
• Equity at exit: $6,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $51,149
• Equity at exit: $3,502

Cash invested: $11,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81050

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$212
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$51 /mo · $608/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $354

Max offer price $40,500

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $427	+0% $413	+5% $399	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $344	-5% $379	+0% $413	+5% $448	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $423	base $413	+0.5pp $403	+1.0pp $392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,125
• Closing costs: $1,215
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,500 Active 471 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,500 Active 469 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,500 Active 468 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,500 Active 467 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,500 Active 466 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,500 Active 464 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,500 Active 463 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,500 Active 460 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,500 Active 459 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,500 Active 458 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,500 Active 457 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,500 Active 454 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,500 Active 453 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,500 Active 452 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,500 Active 451 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,500 Active 450 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $40,500
18. 2025-03-06
    listed $29,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,269
• − Property taxes: −$608
• − Insurance: −$202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$842
• − Management: −$842
• − Depreciation: −$1,178
• Taxable income: $4,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,101
• After-tax cash flow: $3,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Otero School District No. R1
• NCES district ID: 0805130
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,475
• Composite: 13.36/100
• National rank: #9534
• State rank: #83 of 86 in CO

Livability — La Junta

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #10703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Junta, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,774

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,363 people
• By 2030: 16,776 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 15,534 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 14,467 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 12,054 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 9,392 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.5% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.44%
• Current HPI: 232.984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+37.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $40,500 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Listed $29,500 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-6.4%/yr

Latest (2021): $21 · -13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.