31947N US Hwy 60 · Ellsinore, MO 63937

$129,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Other · 115 Days on market

Built 2010 3.00 ac lot $108/sqft · 9% below area Est $142k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the beauty of the Ozarks with this charming 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home offering approximately 1,200 sq ft of comfortable living space. Nestled on 3 private acres just off U.S. Route 60 in Ellsinore, this property delivers the perfect balance of convenience and seclusion. The home features central heat and air for year-round comfort, along with a private well and septic system. Surrounded by mature trees and open skies, you’ll enjoy peaceful sunrises, abundant wildlife, and breathtaking sunsets right from your own backyard. This property is part of a larger 40-acre parcel, with the seller offering the home and 3 acres separately — a great opportunity for those seeking a manageable slice of the Ozarks without sacrificing privacy. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this secluded retreat is ready for you to make it your own. Photos of the home will be added soon.

Key facts

• Private well
• 3 private acres
• Septic system

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• MATURE TREES
• 3 PRIVATE ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-450/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#529 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• East Carter County R-II (rural): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #71 of 324 in MO (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Carter Co. R-Ii Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 327 students, 66% FRL); East Carter Co. R-Ii Middle (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #113 of 391 statewide, top 31%, 141 students, 60% FRL); East Carter Co. R-Ii High (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 184 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,466 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,536
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -8.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $23,322
• Equity at exit: $68,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $74,578
• Equity at exit: $115,431

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63937

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,306/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $122,373

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-1	+0% $-38	+5% $-74	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-78	+0% $-38	+5% $3	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-5	base $-38	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-02-27
    listed $129,000 Active 950-char remark

    Show marketing remark (950 chars)

    Escape to the beauty of the Ozarks with this charming 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home offering approximately 1,200 sq ft of comfortable living space. Nestled on 3 private acres just off U.S. Route 60 in Ellsinore, this property delivers the perfect balance of convenience and seclusion. The home features central heat and air for year-round comfort, along with a private well and septic system. Surrounded by mature trees and open skies, you’ll enjoy peaceful sunrises, abundant wildlife, and breathtaking sunsets right from your own backyard. This property is part of a larger 40-acre parcel, with the seller offering the home and 3 acres separately — a great opportunity for those seeking a manageable slice of the Ozarks without sacrificing privacy. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this secluded retreat is ready for you to make it your own. Photos of the home will be added soon.

19. 2026-02-26
    listed $260,000 Active 1297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1297 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of open pasture and Ozarks beauty with this 34 acre property located just off Highway 60 in Ellsinore, Missouri. Ideally situated between Poplar Bluff and Van Buren, this property offers both convenience and country charm. Equestrian enthusiasts will appreciate the impressive 60x40 seven-stall horse barn, providing ample space for boarding, training, or personal use. The level to gently rolling pasture is well-suited for horses or livestock, with plenty of room to expand or customize to your needs. A scenic pond enhances the landscape, offering a peaceful setting and a reliable water source for livestock and wildlife. The property features beautiful views of the surrounding Ozark countryside, making it an ideal site for a future homesite, recreational retreat, or working farm. With easy highway access, open pastureland, and quality improvements already in place, this property is ready for your vision. Property Highlights: 34& acres of pasture 60x40 seven-stall horse barn Scenic pond Located just off Highway 60 Centrally positioned between Poplar Bluff and Van Buren Beautiful Ozarks setting Ideal for horses, livestock, or recreational use Schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities this exceptional Ozarks property has to offer.

20. 2026-02-26
    listed $399,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1297 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of open pasture and Ozarks beauty with this 34 acre property located just off Highway 60 in Ellsinore, Missouri. Ideally situated between Poplar Bluff and Van Buren, this property offers both convenience and country charm. Equestrian enthusiasts will appreciate the impressive 60x40 seven-stall horse barn, providing ample space for boarding, training, or personal use. The level to gently rolling pasture is well-suited for horses or livestock, with plenty of room to expand or customize to your needs. A scenic pond enhances the landscape, offering a peaceful setting and a reliable water source for livestock and wildlife. The property features beautiful views of the surrounding Ozark countryside, making it an ideal site for a future homesite, recreational retreat, or working farm. With easy highway access, open pastureland, and quality improvements already in place, this property is ready for your vision. Property Highlights: 34& acres of pasture 60x40 seven-stall horse barn Scenic pond Located just off Highway 60 Centrally positioned between Poplar Bluff and Van Buren Beautiful Ozarks setting Ideal for horses, livestock, or recreational use Schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities this exceptional Ozarks property has to offer.

21. 2025-04-28
    listed $375,000 Active
22. 2024-09-01
    historical
23. 2024-04-11
    listed $497,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,306 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,306 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,306
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$974
• − Management: −$974
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$649
• After-tax cash flow: $198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Carter County R-II
• NCES district ID: 2911100
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,660
• Composite: 39.75/100
• National rank: #3891
• State rank: #71 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ellsinore

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #19851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,589

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,169 people
• By 2030: 6,050 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 5,824 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 5,583 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 4,900 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 4,002 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.2) · D 12.7% · R 86.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.7pp toward R · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -74.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.2 2020: R+70.2 2016: R+66.4 2012: R+43.7 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Current HPI: 159.9982
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-74.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $129,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $399,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $260,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Listed $375,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-01 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-11 Listed $497,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,306 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.