14955 S Blue Vista Dr #246 · Oregon City, OR 97045

$199,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,917 sqft · Other public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hard to find four bedrooms, plus an office/den, and 2 bathrooms. This beautiful Palm Harbor home was built in 2005 with 1,917 sq ft. Large living room and family room. Formal dining room. Spacious kitchen with pantry and a center island. The primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet. The en-suite bathroom has a soaker tub, walk-in shower and double vanities. Fenced backyard with a garden area. The carport is extra deep, room for your cars. Storage shed. This community is family friendly and the amenities feature walking trails, dog park, playground, basketball court, and boat & RV storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools and easy freeway access. Sewer and basic ca

Key facts

• Dog park
• Garden area
• Basketball court

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• GARDEN AREA
• WALKING TRAILS
• DOG PARK
• PLAYGROUND
• BASKETBALL COURT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is resale and not land-lease; Unit dimensions approximately 71' x 27'
• Financial info: Lot rent: $899 per month
• HOA & community: Located in Country Village park (lot rent charged monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport plus driveway; RV parking and RV/boat storage available; Three total parking spaces; Extra-deep carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric fuel; Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park (residential); Single-story (main level layout); No notable view; Model: N2PX71A5 by Palm Harbor Home
• Construction: Built in 2005; Block foundation with skirting
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Garden; Patio; Tool shed; Yard; T-111 siding; Composition roof; Level lot; Concrete and paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Range hood; Island; Pantry; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite and walk-in closet; Second bedroom on main level; Third bedroom on main level; Fourth bedroom on main level; Office on main level
• Flooring: Wall-to-wall carpet in bedrooms and living/dining areas; Vinyl flooring in kitchen, family room, and laundry
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Soaking tub; Vaulted ceilings; Laundry area; Washer and dryer included; Double-pane windows with vinyl frames; Crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry with vinyl flooring; Washer and dryer included; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $950 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.6% in Oregon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#12 in OR, #271 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oregon City SD 62 (suburban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #40 of 58 in OR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Redland Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 496 students, 27% FRL); Tumwata Middle School (math 11% / reading 37%, grade F, #115 of 128 statewide, top 90%, 654 students, 34% FRL); Oregon City Senior High School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 1,931 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 408 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.45%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $22,810
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $76,324
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97045

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $950

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18807 Nutmeg Ln Oregon City, OR	3.0	2.5	2044	$3,200	$1.57	23d	1	0.66mi
14338 S Maple Lane Ct Oregon City, OR	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,500	$2.52	1d	14	0.77mi
14378 Walnut Grove Way Oregon City, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,595	$2.56	1d	24	0.86mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $199,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,825
• − Management: −$2,825
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $8,747
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,099
• After-tax cash flow: $9,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon City SD 62
• NCES district ID: 4109330
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $64,272
• Composite: 26.65/100
• National rank: #7169
• State rank: #40 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oregon City

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #271

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 57,526
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 57,526
• Household income: $103,573
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -624.55%
• Current HPI: 301.9661
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $205,000 RMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $386 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.