139 Wilderness Ln · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$34,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1973 ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3/2 Mobile Home, storage building. Fridge, washer, dryer to Coney. Being sold to Settle Estate move-in condition. They don't last long in this great location. Selling as no warranties/repairs.

Key facts

• Listed 99 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $959 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.3% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $31,759 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.75%
• DSCR: 6.24
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,288
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3910 Central Ave #12	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (+2%)	21mo	$72,500	$67	64
3910 Central Ave #9	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	952 (-10%)	9mo	$30,000	$32	57
127 Flamingo Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	924 (-13%)	22mo	$29,900	$32	55
111 Mallview Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+14%)	17mo	$92,000	$76	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $60,695
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.83×
• Total profit: $154,730
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $129/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $959

Break-even live

Break-even rent $264

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 Carl Dr Unit B6 Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	44d	1	0.78mi
122 Chambers Pt Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1242	$2,100	$1.69	44d	1	0.78mi
180 Lakeland Dr Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	44d	1	0.81mi
200 Lakeland Dr Hot Springs National Park, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$1,155	$1.30	44d	10	0.91mi
389 Lake Hamilton Dr Hot Springs National Park, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1137	$1,750	$1.54	44d	16	1.17mi
600 Higdon Ferry Rd #300 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,250	$0.90	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2021-11-17
   status Under Contract
2. 2021-11-05
   price $34,900
3. 2021-10-11
   price $39,900
4. 2021-08-10
   listed $49,900 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $129 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $223 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 72.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$129
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $11,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,789
• After-tax cash flow: $8,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-30.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2021-11-17 Pending — CARMLS
• 2021-11-05 Price Changed $34,900 CARMLS
• 2021-10-11 Price Changed $39,900 CARMLS
• 2021-08-10 Listed $49,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $129 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.