2006 Hwy 29 S · Ellisville, MS 39437

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,217 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1954

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity in South Jones school district. Property sits on an acre of land with a storage building. 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. An additional room could easily be made into a 4th bedroom. This home has so much potential!

Key facts

• Acre of land
• Storage building
• Built 1954

Tags

• SOUTH JONES SCHOOL DISTRICT
• ACRE OF LAND
• STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#123 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.11%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,190
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $35,876
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39437

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,019

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $129,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 234-char remark

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   Great investment opportunity in South Jones school district. Property sits on an acre of land with a storage building. 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. An additional room could easily be made into a 4th bedroom. This home has so much potential!

9. 2026-02-23
   listed $139,000 Active 234-char remark

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   Great investment opportunity in South Jones school district. Property sits on an acre of land with a storage building. 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. An additional room could easily be made into a 4th bedroom. This home has so much potential!

10. 2023-05-11
    soldstatus Closed 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Come tour this move-in-ready spacious home with over 2200 sq ft and a new roof! All three bedrooms are large enough for a king size bed. Bonus room could be used for a home office, craft room, or whatever you desire. The living room and the great room both provide lots of space for entertaining. There is an oversized walk-in shower in the main bathroom. A portion of the back yard is fenced in with a gate. Two out-buildings could provide a variety of uses. Carport entrance includes a ramp.

11. 2023-05-11
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Come tour this move-in-ready spacious home with over 2200 sq ft and a new roof! All three bedrooms are large enough for a king size bed. Bonus room could be used for a home office, craft room, or whatever you desire. The living room and the great room both provide lots of space for entertaining. There is an oversized walk-in shower in the main bathroom. A portion of the back yard is fenced in with a gate. Two out-buildings could provide a variety of uses. Carport entrance includes a ramp.

12. 2023-04-04
    historical
13. 2023-03-13
    status Pending 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Come tour this move-in-ready spacious home with over 2200 sq ft and a new roof! All three bedrooms are large enough for a king size bed. Bonus room could be used for a home office, craft room, or whatever you desire. The living room and the great room both provide lots of space for entertaining. There is an oversized walk-in shower in the main bathroom. A portion of the back yard is fenced in with a gate. Two out-buildings could provide a variety of uses. Carport entrance includes a ramp.

14. 2023-03-07
    price $140,000 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Come tour this move-in-ready spacious home with over 2200 sq ft and a new roof! All three bedrooms are large enough for a king size bed. Bonus room could be used for a home office, craft room, or whatever you desire. The living room and the great room both provide lots of space for entertaining. There is an oversized walk-in shower in the main bathroom. A portion of the back yard is fenced in with a gate. Two out-buildings could provide a variety of uses. Carport entrance includes a ramp.

15. 2023-01-05
    listed $145,000 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Come tour this move-in-ready spacious home with over 2200 sq ft and a new roof! All three bedrooms are large enough for a king size bed. Bonus room could be used for a home office, craft room, or whatever you desire. The living room and the great room both provide lots of space for entertaining. There is an oversized walk-in shower in the main bathroom. A portion of the back yard is fenced in with a gate. Two out-buildings could provide a variety of uses. Carport entrance includes a ramp.

16. 2022-11-30
    listed $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,019 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $2,784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $4,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,051
• Composite: 33.24/100
• National rank: #5520
• State rank: #40 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ellisville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #13645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 12,287
• Population (ZIP): 12,287

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,800 people
• By 2030: 68,773 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 68,087 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 66,241 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 58,600 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 45,744 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 26.2% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+42.2 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.84%
• Current HPI: 142.2369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-02-23 Listed $139,000 HAAR
• 2023-05-11 Sold (MLS) — LBOR
• 2023-05-11 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2023-04-04 Delisted — LBOR
• 2023-03-13 Pending — HAAR
• 2023-03-07 Price Changed $140,000 HAAR
• 2023-01-05 Listed $145,000 HAAR
• 2022-11-30 Listed $140,000 LBOR

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.