5042 Deer Trail Dr · Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30815

$21,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1976 0.42 ac lot $22/sqft · 23% below area Est $28k · 23% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wooded lot with an existing mobile home providing excellent potential for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a homesite. The mobile home is in poor condition and will require significant renovation or removal. Some items and debris have already been cleared from the property, providing a head start on cleanup efforts. Surrounded by mature trees, the property provides privacy, a peaceful setting, and plenty of space to make it your own. Whether you're looking for an investment opportunity, a future homesite, or a project property, this lot presents a variety of possibilities. Conveniently located with room to explore its full potential. Property is being sold as-is. Buyer to verify all p

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Peaceful setting
• Existing mobile home

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• EXISTING MOBILE HOME
• SIGNIFICANT RENOVATION
• MATURE TREES
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R2
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Deer Trail Estates

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Water: other; Sewer: other; No utilities specifically listed
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry at main level; Has a view
• Construction: Slab foundation; Construction details: see remarks; Roof: see remarks; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; No patio or porch listed; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Other heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 68.5% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcbean Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 371 students, 98% FRL); Pine Hill Middle School (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #417 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 582 students, 98% FRL); Hephzibah High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #385 of 424 statewide, top 92%, 1,072 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $149 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $645 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,177 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 68.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 222.06%
• DSCR: 10.88
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $27,986
• List price: $21,500
• Delta: -30.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1468 Hephzibah Mcbean Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+9%)	6mo	$26,000	$24	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.42×
• Total profit: $62,740
• Equity at exit: $3,206

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.22×
• Total profit: $127,729
• Equity at exit: $1,859

Cash invested: $6,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30815

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$113
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $1,114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $216

Max offer price $21,500

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,126	-5% $1,120	+0% $1,114	+5% $1,108	+10% $1,102
Rent	-10% $986	-5% $1,050	+0% $1,114	+5% $1,178	+10% $1,243
Rate	-1.0pp $1,125	-0.5pp $1,119	base $1,114	+0.5pp $1,108	+1.0pp $1,103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,375
• Closing costs: $645
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $21,500 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $21,500 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $21,500 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $21,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $21,500 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $21,500 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $21,500 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $21,500 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $21,500 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $21,500 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-11
    historical
13. 2026-05-11
    historical
14. 2026-04-10
    price $19,500
15. 2026-03-28
    price $22,500
16. 2026-03-28
    listed $24,500 Active
17. 2026-03-28
    listed $19,500 Active
18. 2026-03-28
    historical
19. 2026-03-28
    historical
20. 2026-03-11
    listed $24,500
21. 2026-03-11
    listed $24,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,204
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$108
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$625
• Taxable income: $13,867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,328
• After-tax cash flow: $10,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County
• NCES district ID: 1304380
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,069
• Composite: 13.43/100
• National rank: #9524
• State rank: #154 of 174 in GA

Livability — Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA
• County: Richmond County · 190,917 people
• City population: 154,035
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 44,109
• Household income: $70,202
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 867.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 200,753 people
• By 2030: 200,232 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 196,813 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 190,347 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 172,496 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 146,284 · -27.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.1) · D 67.8% · R 31.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.3pp toward D · 2008: 31.8pp · 2024: 36.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.1 2020: D+37.2 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+33.8 2008: D+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.74%
• Current HPI: 162.4074
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $21,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $21,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $19,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $22,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $24,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $19,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $21,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $24,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $24,500 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.