1202 Cottonwood Ave · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$234,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Other

Built 2026 5,687 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with a 2 car garage offers a clean, modern feel with an open-concept layout that's perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy a well-designed space with comfortable living and dining areas, along with a location that keeps you close to everything while still offering a sense of retreat from the busy day-to-day. The neighborhood includes convenient access to a nearby park and outdoor spaces, all within walking distance. Situated just minutes from shopping, dining, and local conveniences, this home provides the ideal balance of peaceful community living and city accessibility. Don't miss the opportunity to secure this home before it's gone!

Key facts

• 5,687 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-195/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $173,521 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $126,830
• Equity at exit: $211,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $374,068
• Equity at exit: $456,534

Cash invested: $65,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $232,126

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,748
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	43d	1	0.07mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	13d	1	0.17mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	43d	1	0.36mi
1712 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	2.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	43d	1	0.37mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	43d	1	0.49mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	43d	1	0.50mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	13d	1	0.50mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	13d	1	0.52mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.53mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	13d	1	0.53mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	13d	1	0.54mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	43d	1	0.55mi
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	13d	1	0.55mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	43d	1	0.57mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	13d	2	0.60mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	43d	1	0.60mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	21d	1	0.61mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	43d	1	0.61mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	21d	1	0.63mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	43d	1	0.93mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	43d	1	1.03mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	13d	1	1.09mi
7510 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,600	$1.06	43d	1	1.09mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	43d	1	1.11mi
7729 92nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	1810	$2,495	$1.38	21d	1	1.14mi
7456 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,700	$1.16	43d	1	1.19mi
7449 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,625	$1.10	21d	1	1.21mi
7440 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,600	$1.01	13d	1	1.25mi
7424 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,750	$1.10	43d	1	1.34mi
7811 86th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,025	$1.18	21d	1	1.39mi
7350 100th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $234,990
2. 2026-05-22
   historical
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $1,625

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,619/yr (+$302/mo · 530.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,163
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14360.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $234,990 LARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed for Rent $1,625 LARMLS

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $682 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.