1612 46th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1941 7,367 sqft lot $42/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ready to put your mark on an investment property? This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home has tons of potential! Good sized rooms, central heat and air, and original wood floors to work with. Would be a great project to return to its original charm or turn into a rental!

Key facts

• 7,367 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1941

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Carport (2 cars); Carport and garage available
• Security: Window bars
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Property listed as fixer condition
• Construction: Stucco construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard with front and back yard chain link fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Laundry located in the kitchen
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($789 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.08%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,051
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -73.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $16,430
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $44,890
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,074/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $364

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1610 45th St Unit 14 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$895	$1.63	43d	1	0.05mi
1604 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$650	$0.93	43d	1	0.05mi
1710 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$595	$0.83	13d	1	0.15mi
1718 46th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	655	$695	$1.06	43d	1	0.19mi
1717 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	830	$775	$0.93	21d	1	0.21mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	21d	1	0.29mi
1119 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	704	$595	$0.85	21d	1	0.33mi
1107 45th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	728	$850	$1.17	43d	1	0.39mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	21d	1	0.41mi
1511 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	648	$800	$1.23	43d	1	0.44mi
1102 42nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	574	$495	$0.86	21d	1	0.47mi
1317 52nd St Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$650	$0.86	21d	1	0.48mi
1316 53rd St Apt D Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$695	$0.92	43d	1	0.50mi
1307 53rd St Unit 1307 C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$695	$0.92	43d	1	0.56mi
2120 47th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$795	$1.00	21d	1	0.57mi
1310 54th St Unit 3 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	684	$575	$0.84	43d	1	0.58mi
2101 51st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$900	$0.82	21d	1	0.60mi
1101 52nd St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	721	$850	$1.18	21d	1	0.60mi
713 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	21d	1	0.62mi
705 47th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	821	$750	$0.91	21d	1	0.66mi
4511 Avenue G Unit G Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	528	$750	$1.42	13d	1	0.67mi
703 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	821	$750	$0.91	21d	1	0.67mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	43d	1	0.69mi
1204 36th St Unit b Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$835	$0.96	13d	1	0.69mi
529 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$875	$0.80	13d	1	0.70mi
519 42nd St Apt A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1092	$895	$0.82	13d	1	0.73mi
519 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	13d	1	0.73mi
2011 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$800	$0.99	43d	1	0.74mi
5005 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$699	$0.92	13d	1	0.76mi
5005 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$749	$0.99	44d	1	0.76mi
5005 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$799	$1.05	21d	1	0.76mi
1610 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	43d	1	0.77mi
1612 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	43d	1	0.77mi
1614 58th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	43d	1	0.77mi
1618 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	43d	1	0.77mi
2302 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$749	$0.94	21d	1	0.79mi
2107 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$800	$0.78	43d	1	0.80mi
2315 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	21d	1	0.81mi
609 38th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$550	$0.83	43d	1	0.82mi
2304 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	830	$1,150	$1.39	21d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $35,000 Active 264-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$1,074
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$757
• − Management: −$757
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $3,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$893
• After-tax cash flow: $3,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $35,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,074 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.