9 Rosebud Ln · Quogue, NY 11959

$2,775,000

5 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,289 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 2001 2.02 ac lot Est $2826k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Quogue Village Ultimate Retreat Enjoy resort-style living at its finest in this exceptional Quogue Village residence, nestled on 2.02 +/- acres bordering a 6.5 acre reserve. Thoughtfully crafted with both luxury and leisure in mind, this 7 bedroom, 9 full bath, 4705 sf +/- home offers an unmatched array of amenities. The main level features a spacious foyer, leading to a light filled cathedral ceiling living room with fireplace, an expansive dining room seating 12 or more, Open kitchen with breakfast eat-in area , and a Great room with a wet bar, all looking out through Glass doorways to the luxurious yard. Completing the main floor there are two en-suite bedrooms and an additional full bat

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Heated pool
• Finished lower level

Tags

• OVERSIZED PRIMARY EN SUITE
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• HEATED POOL
• FULLY EQUIPPED OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• HAR TRU TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area based on plans
• Construction: Shingle siding
• Exterior features: Balcony; Back yard; Basketball court with hoop; Fire pit; Garden; Tennis court(s); Private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Chef's kitchen; Open, eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: Nine full bathrooms; Double vanity(s) in primary/ensuite bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Oil heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Chef's kitchen; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; High ceilings; Open kitchen layout; Primary bathroom; Walk-in closets; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Basement (full)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $2.77M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($171k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($42k rent vs $2.77M).
• Recommended offer: $2.44M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#600 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #125 of 755 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Quogue Elementary School (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #45 of 2,108 statewide, top 3%, 84 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 90% at this address vs 75% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Quogue Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $131k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $111k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $777k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$210k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.44M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $475k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,442,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.03%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,826,451
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Honeysuckle Ln	0.31mi	5/4.5	4,100 (-4%)	1mo	$2,700,000	$659	71
3 Sachem Ln	0.47mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,000 (-7%)	0mo	$2,700,000	$675	56
140 Damascus Rd	0.53mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,666 (-14%)	4mo	$2,375,000	$648	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $1,395,185
• Equity at exit: $1,409,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $3,515,202
• Equity at exit: $2,306,197

Cash invested: $777,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11959

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $42,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,469 /mo · $41,625/yr
• Insurance: −$1,156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,890
• Net cashflow: $14,267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $24,275

Max offer price $2,775,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $693,750
• Closing costs: $83,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Rosebud Ln East Quogue, NY	6.0	7.5	4500	$55,000	$12.22	43d	1	0.18mi
3 Cherry Blossom Ln East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3632	$40,000	$11.01	43d	1	0.33mi
15 Fox Hollow Dr East Quogue, NY	6.0	5.0	3375	$27,500	$8.15	7d	1	0.47mi
99 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3512	$95,000	$27.05	24d	1	0.94mi
32A Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	5.0	4442	$23,000	$5.18	10d	1	0.99mi
28 Old Meeting House Rd Quogue, NY	5.0	5.5	4500	$30,000	$6.67	24d	1	1.22mi
50 Old Main Rd Quogue, NY	4.0	4.5	3702	$30,000	$8.10	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $2,775,000
3. 2026-02-13
   status Active
4. 2026-02-11
   historical
5. 2025-11-05
   price $2,999,000
6. 2025-08-22
   listed $3,250,000 Active
7. 2024-07-02
   historical $60,000
8. 2024-05-28
   price $60,000
9. 2024-05-04
   price $75,000
10. 2024-04-17
    listed $85,000
11. 2024-02-24
    historical $85,000
12. 2023-08-17
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $508,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$155,443
• − Property taxes: −$41,625
• − Insurance: −$13,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$40,641
• − Management: −$40,641
• − Depreciation: −$80,727
• Taxable income: $135,064
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32,415
• After-tax cash flow: $138,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624060
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 66.09/100
• National rank: #960
• State rank: #125 of 755 in NY

Livability — Quogue

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #10895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Quogue, NY
• City population: 576
• Population (ZIP): 576

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 21% Portuguese 7% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Current HPI: 364.8746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3164.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $2,775,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $2,999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Listed $3,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-02 Rental Removed $60,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-05-28 Price Changed $60,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $75,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-04-17 Listed for Rent $85,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-02-24 Rental Removed $85,000 ONEKEY
• 2023-08-17 Listed for Rent $85,000 ONEKEY

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,331 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.