3651 E I-10 · Seguin, TX 78155

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1948 Poor condition 0.50 ac lot $149/sqft · 38% below area Est $240k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity with prime I-10 access! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,008 square feet of living space and sits on approximately half an acre, giving you plenty of room to expand, renovate, or reimagine the property to fit your needs. Conveniently located with easy access to IH-10, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their own vision. The home does need some TLC, but the potential here is undeniable—whether you're looking for a rental, a starter project, or future commercial possibilities (buyer to verify). Guadalupe CAD reflects the address as 2900 E IH 10, Seguin, TX 78155, however the property is also commonly known as 3651 IH 10, Seguin, TX 78155, which will take you directly to the home. Endless possibilities in a growing area—don’t miss your chance to turn this property into something special!

Key facts

• Prime i-10 access
• Easy access to ih-10
• Half an acre

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• PRIME I-10 ACCESS
• EASY ACCESS TO IH-10

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,413
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -37.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,478
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,805
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,557 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1451 Old Seguin Luling Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,350	$1.15	1d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $150,000 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-04-15
    listed $150,000 Active 888-char remark

    Show marketing remark (888 chars)

    Great investment opportunity with prime I-10 access! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,008 square feet of living space and sits on approximately half an acre, giving you plenty of room to expand, renovate, or reimagine the property to fit your needs. Conveniently located with easy access to IH-10, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their own vision. The home does need some TLC, but the potential here is undeniable—whether you're looking for a rental, a starter project, or future commercial possibilities (buyer to verify). Guadalupe CAD reflects the address as 2900 E IH 10, Seguin, TX 78155, however the property is also commonly known as 3651 IH 10, Seguin, TX 78155, which will take you directly to the home. Endless possibilities in a growing area—don’t miss your chance to turn this property into something special!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$76
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation and repair work, including structural repairs and updates to the interior and exterior. Significant value can be added through a complete renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed insulation — Structural damage
• Major Missing cabinets — Structural damage
• Major General disrepair — Structural damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both New insulation — Improves energy efficiency and comfort
• Both New cabinets — Enhances aesthetics and functionality
• Both Complete renovation — Significant increase in value for both resale and rental

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed insulation · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing cabinets · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
General disrepair · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New insulation — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both New cabinets — Enhances aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Complete renovation — Significant increase in value for both resale and rental ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $150,000 CTXMLS