241 Geronimo Rd · Alpena, MI 49707

$55,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 658 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1940 9,148 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to Northern Michigan with this charming cabin retreat in Alpena! Whether you're searching for the perfect second home, weekend getaway, or peaceful up-north escape, this property offers the cozy cabin feel you've been looking for. Surrounded by the beauty of nature and just minutes from lakes, trails, and outdoor recreation, this is the ideal place to relax, unwind, and enjoy everything Northern Michigan has to offer. A rare opportunity to own your own slice of ''up north'' paradise!Most furnishings can be included with the sale, allowing the next owner to move in and immediately start enjoying the Up North lifestyle. * Some updates have been completed including plumbing, well maintenance, bathroom and kitchen.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Updates completed
• Surrounded by nature

Tags

• CABIN RETREAT
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE
• MINUTES FROM LAKES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• FURNISHINGS INCLUDED
• UPDATES COMPLETED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($758 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 2.9% in Alpena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#359 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities D-.
• Alpena Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #345 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Alpena County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alpena County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.39%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $8,548
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $29,863
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49707

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $152/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$159
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $410

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $306	-5% $290	+0% $275	+5% $259	+10% $243
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $245	+0% $275	+5% $304	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $288	base $275	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $55,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $59,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,500 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $67,500 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,990 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,990 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,990 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,990 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-27
    listed $74,990 Active 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    Escape to Northern Michigan with this charming cabin retreat in Alpena! Whether you're searching for the perfect second home, weekend getaway, or peaceful up-north escape, this property offers the cozy cabin feel you've been looking for. Surrounded by the beauty of nature and just minutes from lakes, trails, and outdoor recreation, this is the ideal place to relax, unwind, and enjoy everything Northern Michigan has to offer. A rare opportunity to own your own slice of ''up north'' paradise! Most furnishings can be included with the sale, allowing the next owner to move in and immediately start enjoying the Up North lifestyle. *Some updates have been completed including plumbing, well maintenance, bathroom and kitchen.

19. 2026-05-27
    listed $74,990 Active 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    Escape to Northern Michigan with this charming cabin retreat in Alpena! Whether you're searching for the perfect second home, weekend getaway, or peaceful up-north escape, this property offers the cozy cabin feel you've been looking for. Surrounded by the beauty of nature and just minutes from lakes, trails, and outdoor recreation, this is the ideal place to relax, unwind, and enjoy everything Northern Michigan has to offer. A rare opportunity to own your own slice of ''up north'' paradise! Most furnishings can be included with the sale, allowing the next owner to move in and immediately start enjoying the Up North lifestyle. *Some updates have been completed including plumbing, well maintenance, bathroom and kitchen.

20. 2026-05-27
    listed $74,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    Escape to Northern Michigan with this charming cabin retreat in Alpena! Whether you're searching for the perfect second home, weekend getaway, or peaceful up-north escape, this property offers the cozy cabin feel you've been looking for. Surrounded by the beauty of nature and just minutes from lakes, trails, and outdoor recreation, this is the ideal place to relax, unwind, and enjoy everything Northern Michigan has to offer. A rare opportunity to own your own slice of ''up north'' paradise! Most furnishings can be included with the sale, allowing the next owner to move in and immediately start enjoying the Up North lifestyle. *Some updates have been completed including plumbing, well maintenance, bathroom and kitchen.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $152 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 228.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$152
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$727
• − Management: −$727
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $2,529
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$607
• After-tax cash flow: $2,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpena Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602730
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,327
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7119
• State rank: #345 of 540 in MI

Livability — Alpena

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #9205

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,050

Population outlook (Alpena County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,245 people
• By 2030: 26,142 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 23,449 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 20,729 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 15,422 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 10,723 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alpena

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.6) · D 35.1% · R 63.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.9pp · 2024: -28.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.6 2020: R+27.6 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.41%
• Current HPI: 232.1238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $74,990 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-27 Listed $74,990 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $74,990 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $152 · -18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.