1533 Chesley Dr · Dellwood, MO 63136

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1958 Fair condition 6,499 sqft lot $79/sqft · 44% below area Est $142k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a partially finished basement with a full bathroom, offering added living space and flexibility. The home includes a large garage and a separate dining room that has been freshly painted. A great opportunity for buyers seeking space and functionality. property sold as is seller will not turn utilities on for inspections. Special sales contract please.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 9.7% in Dellwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 489 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.19%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,915
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -43.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10515 Alliance Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$112,900	$111	84
1729 Keelen Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$125,000	$123	79
1923 Nashua Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	3mo	$149,900	$148	68
1688 Maldon Ln	0.36mi	3/1.0	912 (-10%)	0mo	$109,900	$121	66
1939 Green Valley Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$179,900	$177	66
1621 Mowbry Ln	0.43mi	3/1.0	912 (-10%)	1mo	$144,900	$159	62
1712 Atmore Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	900 (-11%)	1mo	$129,000	$143	62
10269 Dacey Dr	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$169,000	$167	60
1715 Hudson Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,145 (+13%)	3mo	$125,000	$109	56
309 N Floridale Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	912 (-10%)	1mo	$54,900	$60	51
1920 Crown Point Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	936 (-8%)	1mo	$75,000	$80	43
10507 Tate Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+13%)	1mo	$114,900	$100	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $45,713
• Equity at exit: $39,534

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $121,180
• Equity at exit: $63,893

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 76 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $92,950 ($96/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +45.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,782/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $515	-5% $492	+0% $470	+5% $447	+10% $424
Rent	-10% $363	-5% $416	+0% $470	+5% $523	+10% $577
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $490	base $470	+0.5pp $449	+1.0pp $428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	73d	1	0.02mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	93d	1	0.11mi
10220 Doane Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,300	$1.28	9d	1	0.39mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	93d	1	0.44mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	73d	1	0.47mi
10341 Trask Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,545	$1.39	27d	1	0.55mi
1123 Hudson Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	42d	1	0.64mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	73d	1	0.75mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	93d	1	0.79mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	93d	1	0.80mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	93d	1	0.84mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	93d	1	0.85mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1251	$1,200	$0.96	47d	1	0.86mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	61d	1	0.86mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	28d	1	0.87mi
10160 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	28d	1	0.87mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	93d	1	0.88mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	93d	1	0.90mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	93d	1	0.91mi
413 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	35d	1	0.94mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	30d	1	0.96mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	47d	1	0.96mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	73d	1	0.96mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	93d	1	0.96mi
10116 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	996	$1,100	$1.10	39d	1	0.98mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	47d	1	0.98mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	93d	1	0.98mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	73d	1	0.99mi
536 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1305	$1,655	$1.27	9d	1	1.02mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	93d	1	1.04mi
10117 Crown Point Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,245	$1.17	35d	1	1.04mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	64d	1	1.06mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	93d	1	1.07mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	73d	1	1.08mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	93d	1	1.09mi
38 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,395	$1.45	13d	1	1.10mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	67d	1	1.10mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	93d	1	1.13mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	73d	1	1.14mi
2049 Baroque Ct Unit 1-2036D St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	825	$985	$1.19	24d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-07-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-07-11
   days on market $79,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-07-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-07-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-07-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-07-06
   days on market $79,900 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-07-05
   days on market $79,900 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-07-03
   days on market $79,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-07-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-07-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-29
    days on market $79,900 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-06-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-06-27
    days on market $79,900 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-06-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-06-24
    days on market $79,900 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-06-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 128 DOM
19. 2026-06-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 127 DOM
20. 2026-06-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 124 DOM
21. 2026-06-17
    days on market $79,900 Active 123 DOM
22. 2026-06-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 122 DOM
23. 2026-06-15
    days on market $79,900 Active 121 DOM
24. 2026-06-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 119 DOM
25. 2026-06-13
    status $79,900 Active 118 DOM
26. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $79,900 Pending 118 DOM
27. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 117 DOM
28. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 116 DOM
29. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 115 DOM
30. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 114 DOM
31. 2026-02-06
    listed $79,900 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a partially finished basement with a full bathroom, offering added living space and flexibility. The home includes a large garage and a separate dining room that has been freshly painted. A great opportunity for buyers seeking space and functionality. property sold as is seller will not turn utilities on for inspections. Special sales contract please.

32. 2020-01-31
    soldstatus $1,436,500
33. 2012-05-25
    soldstatus 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Just reduced! Seller wants this one sold. Grab your tools and snap this little money maker back in shape! 3 bedroom with attached garage, full basement and fenced back yard! This one will make a great rental for some lucky investor! Bank of America Pre Qualification required with all offers. Please use Special Sale Contract. See Agent Remarks for Deed Restriction on Cash purchases. Buyer is entitled to a building inspection for informational purposes only. Not to be used as a negotiating tool. Property to be sold in AS-IS condition. Seller to make no repairs. Please allow a least 2-3 days for seller response. Minimum $1000 Earnest Money.

34. 2012-02-22
    listed $24,500 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Just reduced! Seller wants this one sold. Grab your tools and snap this little money maker back in shape! 3 bedroom with attached garage, full basement and fenced back yard! This one will make a great rental for some lucky investor! Bank of America Pre Qualification required with all offers. Please use Special Sale Contract. See Agent Remarks for Deed Restriction on Cash purchases. Buyer is entitled to a building inspection for informational purposes only. Not to be used as a negotiating tool. Property to be sold in AS-IS condition. Seller to make no repairs. Please allow a least 2-3 days for seller response. Minimum $1000 Earnest Money.

35. 2004-06-07
    soldstatus $66,000
36. 1988-02-01
    soldstatus
37. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,782 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,782 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,782
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $4,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $25,350–$45,630 screening

The home requires significant repairs to the roof and siding, as well as painting the exterior walls. These repairs will significantly increase its value and make it more attractive to buyers and renters.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to have significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major siding — The siding is peeling and in need of repainting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace the roof — A new roof will significantly increase the home's value and make it more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both paint the exterior walls — Painting the exterior walls will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

High Riverview Gardens Sr. High F MO #501/521 Nat'l #15,975/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Dellwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dellwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 1,025,227 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+21.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $1,436,500 Public Records
• 2012-05-25 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-22 Listed $24,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,782 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.