1533 Chesley Dr · Dellwood, MO 63136

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1958 6,499 sqft lot $79/sqft · 43% below area Est $141k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a partially finished basement with a full bathroom, offering added living space and flexibility. The home includes a large garage and a separate dining room that has been freshly painted. A great opportunity for buyers seeking space and functionality. property sold as is seller will not turn utilities on for inspections. Special sales contract please.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 10.4% in Dellwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime D-.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.10%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,903
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -43.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1646 Hudson Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$164,500	$162	86
10515 Alliance Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	0mo	$112,900	$111	86
10418 Quaker Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$64,900	$64	85
1618 Keelen Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	936 (-8%)	3mo	$160,000	$171	72
1923 Nashua Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$149,900	$148	69
1716 Atmore Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	950 (-6%)	2mo	$130,000	$137	68
10615 Alliance Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	975 (-4%)	3mo	$119,900	$123	68
1354 Stein Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	982 (-3%)	2mo	$160,000	$163	66
10257 Dacey Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$120,000	$118	62
10269 Dacey Dr	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$169,000	$167	61
1715 Hudson Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,145 (+13%)	1mo	$125,000	$109	58
10719 Trask Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	900 (-11%)	3mo	$143,500	$159	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $46,843
• Equity at exit: $39,534

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $123,749
• Equity at exit: $63,893

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,782/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	0.02mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	0.11mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.44mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.47mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.75mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.79mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	43d	1	0.80mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.84mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	43d	1	0.85mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	12d	1	0.86mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	0.87mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.88mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	43d	1	0.90mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.91mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	0.96mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.96mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	0.96mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	43d	1	0.98mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.99mi
536 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1305	$1,750	$1.34	1d	1	1.02mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	43d	1	1.04mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	14d	1	1.06mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	1.07mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	1.08mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	43d	1	1.09mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	17d	1	1.10mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	1.13mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	1.14mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	1.18mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	1.19mi
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	21d	1	1.20mi
3582 Pershall Rd Unit 3631 Ferguson, MO	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	43d	1	1.21mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	1.22mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	43d	1	1.25mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	16d	1	1.26mi
13 N Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,400	$1.23	10d	1	1.26mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	7d	1	1.26mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	43d	1	1.28mi
3585 Pershall Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,400	$1.01	43d	1	1.28mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   status $79,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $79,900 Pending 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $79,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-02-06
    listed $79,900 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a partially finished basement with a full bathroom, offering added living space and flexibility. The home includes a large garage and a separate dining room that has been freshly painted. A great opportunity for buyers seeking space and functionality. property sold as is seller will not turn utilities on for inspections. Special sales contract please.

13. 2020-01-31
    soldstatus $1,436,500
14. 2012-05-25
    soldstatus 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Just reduced! Seller wants this one sold. Grab your tools and snap this little money maker back in shape! 3 bedroom with attached garage, full basement and fenced back yard! This one will make a great rental for some lucky investor! Bank of America Pre Qualification required with all offers. Please use Special Sale Contract. See Agent Remarks for Deed Restriction on Cash purchases. Buyer is entitled to a building inspection for informational purposes only. Not to be used as a negotiating tool. Property to be sold in AS-IS condition. Seller to make no repairs. Please allow a least 2-3 days for seller response. Minimum $1000 Earnest Money.

15. 2012-02-22
    listed $24,500 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Just reduced! Seller wants this one sold. Grab your tools and snap this little money maker back in shape! 3 bedroom with attached garage, full basement and fenced back yard! This one will make a great rental for some lucky investor! Bank of America Pre Qualification required with all offers. Please use Special Sale Contract. See Agent Remarks for Deed Restriction on Cash purchases. Buyer is entitled to a building inspection for informational purposes only. Not to be used as a negotiating tool. Property to be sold in AS-IS condition. Seller to make no repairs. Please allow a least 2-3 days for seller response. Minimum $1000 Earnest Money.

16. 2004-06-07
    soldstatus $66,000
17. 1988-02-01
    soldstatus
18. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,782 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,782 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,782
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,174
• After-tax cash flow: $4,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Dellwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dellwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+21.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $1,436,500 Public Records
• 2012-05-25 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-22 Listed $24,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,782 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.