185 Siegfried Dr · Williamsville, NY 14221

$275,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1957 9,000 sqft lot Est $316k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 185 Siegfried Drive! This well-maintained brick ranch has been lovingly maintained by one family since it was built. Nestled in the highly desirable Williamsville School District, this move-in-ready home offers the perfect blend of charm, thoughtful updates and comfortable living spaces. Step inside to discover a bright & inviting interior and a well-designed floor plan. The living room features a huge, oversized window filling it with natural light. The large eat-in kitchen is well layout and appliance for your culinary adventures. There are well-protected hard wood floors under the carpeting in the living room and bedrooms. The bathroom fixtures have been updated, includi

Key facts

• Screened patio
• 9,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM FIXTURES
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• SCREENED PATIO
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACK YARD
• HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACE
• MAINTENANCE FREE VINYL SOFFITS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Copper plumbing
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full basement with sump pump; Recreation room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in Williamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $232,133 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,700
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 Forest Hill Dr	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,143 (+4%)	5mo	$320,000	$280	83
194 Siegfried Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,168 (+6%)	12mo	$335,058	$287	74
1117 N Forest Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,041 (-5%)	10mo	$349,000	$335	68
77 Siegfried Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,228 (+12%)	5mo	$310,000	$252	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-48,125
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-31,977
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,321 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,913/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,489

Max offer price $251,625

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-54	+0% $-132	+5% $-210	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-224	+0% $-132	+5% $-41	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-62	base $-132	+0.5pp $-204	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1325 N Forest Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	870	$2,095	$2.41	2d	9	0.54mi
540 Mill St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,095	$1.61	2d	1	0.75mi
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	24d	1	0.77mi
255 Evans St Williamsville, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	2d	13	1.29mi
499 Burroughs Dr Unit 5 Amherst, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $275,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 695-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $275,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,913 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,913 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,913
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,228
• − Management: −$2,228
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,510
• After-tax cash flow: $-77/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #693

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,255
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $275,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,913 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.