CS1650 Plan · Odessa, TX 79762

$75,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 758 sqft · Manufactured · 766 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect Lake-side home with front porch Looking for a great lake home here it is this @ bedroom home is perfect for lake home or deer lease? Upgraded insulation package and thermal pane windows! Price includes Delivery, set, air conditioner, skirting, caliche pad and steps.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Lake-side home
• Thermal pane windows

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• LAKE-SIDE HOME
• UPGRADED INSULATION PACKAGE
• THERMAL PANE WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $522 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 766 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 766 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.14%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $27,038
• Equity at exit: $11,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $67,692
• Equity at exit: $6,528

Cash invested: $21,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$396
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,132/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $660

Max offer price $75,500

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,875
• Closing costs: $2,265
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	13d	18	0.67mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	44d	1	0.68mi
3800 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	21d	1	0.83mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	44d	1	0.93mi
5916 Austin Ave Odessa, TX	1.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	21d	1	1.25mi
1613 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1122	$2,200	$1.96	13d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,500 Active 766 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,500 Active 765 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,500 Active 764 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,500 Active 763 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,500 Active 762 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,500 Active 760 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,500 Active 759 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,500 Active 757 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,500 Active 756 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,500 Active 755 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,500 Active 754 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,500 Active 749 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,500 Active 748 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,500 Active 747 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,500 Active 746 DOM
16. 2024-05-14
    listed $75,500 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Perfect Lake-side home with front porch Looking for a great lake home here it is this @ bedroom home is perfect for lake home or deer lease? Upgraded insulation package and thermal pane windows! Price includes Delivery, set, air conditioner, skirting, caliche pad and steps.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,229
• − Property taxes: −$1,132
• − Insurance: −$378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$2,196
• Taxable income: $7,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,697
• After-tax cash flow: $6,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed. It has potential for increased value with minor updates to kitchen and bathroom fixtures, and fresh paint and staining to the front porch.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen backsplash — Appears slightly worn.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Slight discoloration visible.
• Minor Front porch railings — Slight wear on white railings.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — New fixtures can enhance functionality and appearance.
• Both Stain front porch railings — Fresh stain can improve the home's curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen backsplash · Appears slightly worn.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Slight discoloration visible.	Minor	$500–3,000
Front porch railings · Slight wear on white railings.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — New fixtures can enhance functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both Stain front porch railings — Fresh stain can improve the home's curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-05-14 Listed $75,500 Zillow