16711 Marsh Creek Rd #158 · Antioch, CA 94517

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Manufactured · 296 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $234k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-In Ready, Beautifully maintained, spacious 3 Bedroom,2 Bath w/Generous Living Space. Dining Room & Kitchen has Cherry Laminate Floors, Breakfast bar & vaulted Ceilings. Large backyard with automatic sprinklers & views of green rolling hills. Feels like home! Best Buy in Clayton Palms Park.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Storage shed
• Automatic sprinklers

Tags

• RICH CHERRY LAMINATE FLOORS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• AUTOMATIC SPRINKLERS
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community clubhouse; Playground; Community pool; Located in Clayton Regency park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park (mobile home); Double wide; Model: Suncrest
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Porch with steps; Back yard; Automatic sprinklers; Storage shed(s); Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Tile counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Free-standing range/oven; Skylight(s)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (2 full)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Dining area; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; 220-volt outlet; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $199k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.61%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,640
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #126	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	10mo	$182,000	$140	89
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #63	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	14mo	$245,000	$188	86
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #66	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+2%)	10mo	$255,000	$189	83
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #88	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+4%)	14mo	$185,000	$135	82
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #52	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+7%)	15mo	$250,000	$177	75
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #135	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	20mo	$221,000	$177	74
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #68	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+6%)	8mo	$260,000	$185	73
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #54	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-10%)	16mo	$240,000	$202	70
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #175	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+11%)	17mo	$216,000	$148	63
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #65	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+8%)	18mo	$249,999	$175	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $68,809
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $189,940
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94517

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,562 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $408/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$748
• Net cashflow: $1,587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,553

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 285 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $199,000
16. 2026-01-31
    price $210,000
17. 2025-08-26
    listed $225,000 Active
18. 2017-04-27
    soldstatus $115,000 Sold 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Move-In Ready, Beautifully maintained, spacious 3 Bedroom,2 Bath w/Generous Living Space. Dining Room & Kitchen has Cherry Laminate Floors, Breakfast bar & vaulted Ceilings. Large backyard with automatic sprinklers & views of green rolling hills. Feels like home! Best Buy in Clayton Palms Park.

19. 2017-02-11
    status Pending 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Move-In Ready, Beautifully maintained, spacious 3 Bedroom,2 Bath w/Generous Living Space. Dining Room & Kitchen has Cherry Laminate Floors, Breakfast bar & vaulted Ceilings. Large backyard with automatic sprinklers & views of green rolling hills. Feels like home! Best Buy in Clayton Palms Park.

20. 2017-02-04
    listed $115,000 New 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Move-In Ready, Beautifully maintained, spacious 3 Bedroom,2 Bath w/Generous Living Space. Dining Room & Kitchen has Cherry Laminate Floors, Breakfast bar & vaulted Ceilings. Large backyard with automatic sprinklers & views of green rolling hills. Feels like home! Best Buy in Clayton Palms Park.

21. 2011-10-13
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Beautiful Modular, Move-In Ready & Like New. 3 Spacious Bedrooms & 2 Full Bathrooms. Jetted Tub, Shower Stall & Walk-In Closet in Master. Gorgeous Cherry Laminate in Kitchen & Dining Room. Large Lot with Gorgeous Backyard with Lawn, Garden Area, Patio, Storage Shed & Auto Irrigation. A Must See!

22. 2011-08-12
    status Pending 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Beautiful Modular, Move-In Ready & Like New. 3 Spacious Bedrooms & 2 Full Bathrooms. Jetted Tub, Shower Stall & Walk-In Closet in Master. Gorgeous Cherry Laminate in Kitchen & Dining Room. Large Lot with Gorgeous Backyard with Lawn, Garden Area, Patio, Storage Shed & Auto Irrigation. A Must See!

23. 2011-06-23
    listed $79,900 New 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Beautiful Modular, Move-In Ready & Like New. 3 Spacious Bedrooms & 2 Full Bathrooms. Jetted Tub, Shower Stall & Walk-In Closet in Master. Gorgeous Cherry Laminate in Kitchen & Dining Room. Large Lot with Gorgeous Backyard with Lawn, Garden Area, Patio, Storage Shed & Auto Irrigation. A Must See!

24. 2003-09-30
    soldstatus $99,000
25. 2003-08-22
    listed $109,980
26. 2003-08-22
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $408 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,104/yr (+$92/mo · 270.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$408
• − Insurance: −$1,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,420
• − Management: −$3,420
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $16,771
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,025
• After-tax cash flow: $15,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,477
• Population (ZIP): 12,164

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -693.84%
• Current HPI: 144.7139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $199,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $210,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-26 Listed $225,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-04-27 Sold (MLS) $115,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-02-11 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-02-04 Listed $115,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-10-13 Sold (MLS) $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-08-12 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-06-23 Listed $79,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-09-30 Sold (MLS) $99,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-08-22 Listed $109,980 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-08-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $408 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.