8751 Shady Pavillion Ct · Connerton, FL 34637

$339,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2018 6,172 sqft lot Est $349k · at est. $87/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the beautiful resort-style community of Connerton! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2 car garage home offers 1,608 living sq ft and 2,322 sq ft under roof, perfectly positioned on a spacious corner lot. Located just around the corner from the incredible community center, residents enjoy access to a massive sparkling pool, splash park, fitness center, tennis courts, basketball courts, playgrounds, walking and biking trails, nature trails, and even a clubhouse café. Connerton is known for its many resident activities and vibrant community atmosphere, all while being conveniently located approximately 35 minutes from downtown Tampa, 20 minutes to Wesley Chapel, and

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Splash park
• Tennis courts

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• MASSIVE SPARKLING POOL
• SPLASH PARK
• FITNESS CENTER
• TENNIS COURTS
• BASKETBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,800; Total annual fees: $1,044 (monthly equivalent $87)
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $87); Quarterly association fee ($261); Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground, park, basketball court, recreation facilities, trails, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage (attached; garage faces rear)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces northeast; MPUD zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a single-family home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Exterior lighting; Sidewalks; Sprinkler (metered); Landscaped; Level lot; Corner lot; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (gas dryer hookup); Laundry closet; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $339k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,872 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21167 Pleasant Plains Pkwy	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,608 (0%)	10mo	$345,000	$215	86
21149 Pleasant Plains Pkwy	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+6%)	14mo	$380,000	$224	72
21422 Diamonte Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+5%)	2mo	$328,000	$194	68
9264 Bella Vita Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+10%)	3mo	$400,000	$226	66
20907 Diamonte Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+5%)	3mo	$340,000	$201	62
8432 Tarocco Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+9%)	6mo	$425,000	$243	60
21005 Wistful Yearn Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+0%)	7mo	$350,000	$217	59
8144 Ambersweet Pl	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-1%)	2mo	$310,000	$195	57
8148 Ambersweet Pl	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-2%)	11mo	$310,000	$198	48
8205 Ponkan Rd	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+9%)	1mo	$340,000	$194	46
8209 Ponkan Rd	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (-1%)	17mo	$350,000	$221	45
21489 Billowy Jaunt Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,747 (+9%)	15mo	$396,500	$227	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-49,229
• Equity at exit: $73,156

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-43,265
• Equity at exit: $69,650

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,729 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,740/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$87
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,039

Max offer price $295,657

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	13d	1	0.98mi
21030 Green Wing Ct Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,185	$1.12	24d	1	1.03mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	15d	1	1.04mi
7655 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2070	$3,100	$1.50	11d	1	1.10mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	18d	1	1.11mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,099	$1.31	13d	1	1.11mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	5d	1	1.12mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	24d	1	1.13mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	24d	1	1.15mi
7442 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,470	$1.19	24d	1	1.29mi
20191 Sabal Palm Ct Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1404	$3,338	$2.38	3d	20	1.44mi
20716 Eustis Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,050	$1.41	2d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $87 · $1,044/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $339,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $339,000 Active
15. 2018-04-19
    soldstatus $135,000
16. 2015-01-05
    soldstatus $5,400,000
17. 2010-05-26
    soldstatus $1,579,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,740 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,740 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$4,740
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,620
• − Management: −$2,620
• − HOA: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$8,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-78.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $5,400,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,579,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,740 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.