24 Shagbark Ct E · Towamencin, PA 19438

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1990 8,000 sqft lot $109/sqft · 37% below area Est $167k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come put your finishing touch on this 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the beautiful 55+ community of Walnut Meadows.   This home may need work but it sits on a wonderful lot that backs up to a tree line.   Spend your days and nights enjoying nature and privacy on the back deck.   There are two nicely sized bedrooms and one and a half baths.   The home has a galley kitchen and ample closet space throughout.   The community has a large clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard, pool table, library, bocce court and plenty of activities.   This home is being sold As Is.

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $985 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Penn SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #76 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.21%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,694
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -37.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $45,745
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $120,695
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19438

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,280/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $985

Break-even live

Break-even rent $887

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,045	-5% $1,015	+0% $985	+5% $955	+10% $926
Rent	-10% $817	-5% $901	+0% $985	+5% $1,069	+10% $1,154
Rate	-1.0pp $1,038	-0.5pp $1,012	base $985	+0.5pp $958	+1.0pp $930

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1203 Crosshill Ct Lansdale, PA	2.0	1.0	945	$1,900	$2.01	2d	1	0.62mi
100 Jacobs Hall Ln Lansdale, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1348	$3,092	$2.29	2d	9	1.19mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    price $120,000 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    Come put your finishing touch on this 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the beautiful 55+ community of Walnut Meadows.   This home may need work but it sits on a wonderful lot that backs up to a tree line.   Spend your days and nights enjoying nature and privacy on the back deck.   There are two nicely sized bedrooms and one and a half baths.   The home has a galley kitchen and ample closet space throughout.   The community has a large clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard, pool table, library, bocce court and plenty of activities.   This home is being sold As Is.

15. 2026-03-26
    listed $135,000 Active 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    Come put your finishing touch on this 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the beautiful 55+ community of Walnut Meadows.   This home may need work but it sits on a wonderful lot that backs up to a tree line.   Spend your days and nights enjoying nature and privacy on the back deck.   There are two nicely sized bedrooms and one and a half baths.   The home has a galley kitchen and ample closet space throughout.   The community has a large clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard, pool table, library, bocce court and plenty of activities.   This home is being sold As Is.

16. 2010-08-01
    historical
17. 2010-01-30
    listed $64,999
18. 2004-03-30
    soldstatus $109,900
19. 2004-02-05
    historical
20. 2004-01-18
    listed $109,900
21. 2003-08-08
    soldstatus $94,000
22. 2003-01-07
    listed $94,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,280
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $10,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,586
• After-tax cash flow: $9,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Penn SD
• NCES district ID: 4217280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $76,866
• Composite: 51.5/100
• National rank: #1722
• State rank: #76 of 539 in PA

Livability — Towamencin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kulpsville, PA
• County: Montgomery County · 712,331 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 25,438
• Household income: $138,134
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 856,074 people
• By 2030: 870,887 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 891,195 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 896,417 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 903,212 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 843,240 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Subsaharan African 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.8) · D 60.9% · R 38.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: 20.8pp · 2024: 22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.8 2020: D+26.3 2016: D+21.1 2012: D+14.3 2008: D+20.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.96%
• Current HPI: 280.149
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+27.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-08-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-01-30 Listed $64,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-03-30 Sold (MLS) $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-02-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-01-18 Listed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-08-08 Sold (MLS) $94,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-01-07 Listed $94,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,280 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.