1551 NW 21st St · Crystal River, FL 34428

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 207 Days on market

Built 1973 0.44 ac lot Est $347k · 35% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW! Wonderful price on this 3 bed/2 bath home which has a new roof (1 yr. ), fresh paint, clean, great location close to mall, and is on almost a half acre. Large family/game room as well as beautiful large trees are on the property. Must see.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Walk-in closet
• Screened lanai

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD
• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• AMPLE STORAGE
• SCREENED LANAI
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $140 (about $11.67/month); Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Driveway; Concrete parking; On-street parking; RV access/parking; Boat parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Cleared, level, rectangular lot; Paved city street frontage; Zoned R1
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Block and slab foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built as one-level
• Exterior features: Awnings; Sliding doors; Fenced yard with chain link, privacy, and wood sections; Shed(s); Waterfront access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Skylights; Blinds and window treatments; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($417/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.5% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal River Primary School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 654 students, 70% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,273/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $225k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.79%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,472
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2001 NW 15th Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-4%)	2mo	$225,000	$155	86
3832 N Bluebird Ter	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+5%)	0mo	$314,000	$197	82
3901 N Nokomis Pt	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+8%)	2mo	$225,000	$137	78
3713 N Suwanee Pt	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+8%)	6mo	$485,000	$296	73
1464 NW 22nd St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+10%)	8mo	$297,000	$177	71
3926 N Eagle Pt	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+12%)	7mo	$575,000	$335	65
3628 N Hiawatha Ter	0.20mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,380 (-9%)	5mo	$385,000	$279	64
1950 NW 19th St	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+3%)	3mo	$620,000	$394	63
1411 NW 19th St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,674 (+10%)	5mo	$220,000	$131	62
3874 N Timucua Pt	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-3%)	8mo	$337,000	$228	58
2051 NW 17th St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,633 (+7%)	2mo	$455,000	$279	54
3930 N Seminole Pt	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+14%)	8mo	$345,000	$199	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-34,087
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-26,182
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $582/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,229

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $98	+0% $35	+5% $-29	+10% $-93
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-55	+0% $35	+5% $124	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $92	base $35	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 NW 22nd St Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,100	$1.37	22d	1	0.09mi
10906 W Cove Harbor Dr Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1409	$2,950	$2.09	22d	1	0.22mi
10785 W Spring Cir Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	22d	1	0.28mi
11057 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,495	$1.39	22d	1	0.29mi
11055 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,550	$1.44	22d	1	0.29mi
1950 NW 12th Ave Unit B Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	22d	1	0.38mi
373 NW 14th Pl Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1422	$3,000	$2.11	22d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 207 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 185 DOM
16. 2026-02-24
    price $225,000
17. 2025-11-27
    listed $235,000 Active
18. 2011-09-02
    soldstatus $55,000
19. 2011-08-30
    soldstatus $55,000 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    WOW! Wonderful price on this 3 bed/2 bath home which has a new roof (1 yr. ), fresh paint, clean, great location close to mall, and is on almost a half acre. Large family/game room as well as beautiful large trees are on the property. Must see.

20. 2011-08-10
    listed $59,900 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    WOW! Wonderful price on this 3 bed/2 bath home which has a new roof (1 yr. ), fresh paint, clean, great location close to mall, and is on almost a half acre. Large family/game room as well as beautiful large trees are on the property. Must see.

21. 2008-12-16
    soldstatus $78,000
22. 2008-12-15
    soldstatus $78,000 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WATER ACCESS. .. Communiity boat ramp available through voluntary homeowners association. This 3 BR, 2 BA home has a great family room. The home has never flooded. Conveniently located near mall and hospital and only minutes to town. Room to park boat or RV and priced to sell. Noot a foreclosure, but a foreclosure price.

23. 2008-02-28
    listed $99,900 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WATER ACCESS. .. Communiity boat ramp available through voluntary homeowners association. This 3 BR, 2 BA home has a great family room. The home has never flooded. Conveniently located near mall and hospital and only minutes to town. Room to park boat or RV and priced to sell. Noot a foreclosure, but a foreclosure price.

24. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $582 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,286/yr (+$107/mo · 221.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$582
• − Insurance: −$6,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,210
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$770
• After-tax cash flow: $1,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal River, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+363.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $225,000 RACC
• 2025-11-27 Listed $235,000 RACC
• 2011-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-30 Sold (MLS) $55,000 RACC
• 2011-08-10 Listed $59,900 RACC
• 2008-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-15 Sold (MLS) $78,000 RACC
• 2008-02-28 Listed $99,900 RACC
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $582 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.