4219 Avenue J · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$299,130

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 2005 0.27 ac lot $195/sqft · 9% above area Est $275k · 9% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home situated on an oversized corner lot in the heart of Santa Fe. This well maintained home offers a spacious, functional layout, a welcoming living area, and plenty of natural light throughout. The primary suite features a private ensuite bath and a generous walk-in closet. Enjoy the large fenced backyard complete with a 13x13 workshop building, perfect for hobbies, projects, or extra storage. An oversized 2 car garage provides additional convenience and workspace. Conveniently located with easy access to schools, shopping, and commuting routes, while still offering a quiet small town feel.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Walk-in closet
• Shop for projects

Tags

• EXTRA-LARGE CORNER LOT
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• SHOP FOR PROJECTS
• OVERSIZED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($185k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 68.1% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,234 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 68.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 220.77%
• DSCR: 10.82
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,970
• List price: $299,130
• Delta: 8.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4238 Chisholm Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+1%)	5mo	$295,000	$190	88
11806 Oregon Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-6%)	2mo	$299,900	$207	80
11814 Santa Fe Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+3%)	7mo	$278,000	$176	80
4433 Avenue L	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	10mo	$289,900	$193	72
11826 Old Spanish Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,374 (-10%)	10mo	$269,999	$197	68
11837 12th St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,639 (+7%)	7mo	$317,500	$194	66
11731 Santa Fe Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-12%)	4mo	$257,500	$190	64
11811 15th St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-2%)	13mo	$245,000	$162	61
12423 A Bar Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-6%)	1mo	$269,000	$186	61
12111 Wooden Mill Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,651 (+8%)	8mo	$321,424	$195	48
11905 15th St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-11%)	10mo	$200,000	$146	44
3815 Mulberry Farms Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+15%)	12mo	$340,000	$193	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.14×
• Total profit: $933,428
• Equity at exit: $44,601

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.82×
• Total profit: $2,078,475
• Equity at exit: $25,863

Cash invested: $83,756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,569
• Tax from tax record: −$592 /mo · $7,105/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,704
• Net cashflow: $15,409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,893

Max offer price $299,130

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,782
• Closing costs: $8,974
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	22d	1	0.39mi
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,130 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,130 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,130 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,130 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $299,130 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $292,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $292,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $292,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $292,000 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $292,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $292,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $292,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    historical Active Under Contract 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home situated on an oversized corner lot in the heart of Santa Fe. This well maintained home offers a spacious, functional layout, a welcoming living area, and plenty of natural light throughout. The primary suite features a private ensuite bath and a generous walk-in closet. Enjoy the large fenced backyard complete with a 13x13 workshop building, perfect for hobbies, projects, or extra storage. An oversized 2 car garage provides additional convenience and workspace. Conveniently located with easy access to schools, shopping, and commuting routes, while still offering a quiet small town feel.

15. 2026-05-18
    listed $292,000 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home situated on an oversized corner lot in the heart of Santa Fe. This well maintained home offers a spacious, functional layout, a welcoming living area, and plenty of natural light throughout. The primary suite features a private ensuite bath and a generous walk-in closet. Enjoy the large fenced backyard complete with a 13x13 workshop building, perfect for hobbies, projects, or extra storage. An oversized 2 car garage provides additional convenience and workspace. Conveniently located with easy access to schools, shopping, and commuting routes, while still offering a quiet small town feel.

16. 2025-12-20
    listed $299,130 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    Step into comfort in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home set on an extra-large corner lot. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the space and warmth this home offers. The large, fenced backyard is perfect for weekend gatherings, gardening, or quiet evenings, complete with a shop for projects or extra storage. An oversized two-car garage adds even more convenience. Inside, updated appliances and a cozy, well-planned layout make it easy to settle in. The primary bedroom feels like a true retreat with a generous walk-in closet and a private ensuite bath. This is a home where memories are waiting to be made.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,105 · $592/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,105 · $592/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $268,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,756
• − Property taxes: −$7,105
• − Insurance: −$1,496
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,502
• − Management: −$21,502
• − Depreciation: −$8,702
• Taxable income: $191,717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46,012
• After-tax cash flow: $138,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $292,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $299,130 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,105 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.