157 Greenhurst Village Dr · Lakewood, NY 14701

$60,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 2010 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 157 8th St. in Greenhurst Village Mobile home park. A meticulously maintained 2-bedroom, 2-full-bath 2010 mobile home. This inviting home offers comfortable living with central air and added usable space from the porch and spacious enclosed deck, where you can relax, entertain, and enjoy beautiful views with peeks of Chautauqua Lake. The property features a generous lawn with plenty of space between neighboring homes, plus a 10x12 garden shed with electric and a firepit area behind it. Conveniently located with easy access to Chautauqua Lake, local parks, grocery stores, gas, and everyday amenities. Recent updates include the living room painted, new curtains, and driveway sealed

Key facts

• Firepit area
• 10x12 garden shed
• Central air

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR
• SPACIOUS ENCLOSED DECK
• 10X12 GARDEN SHED
• FIREPIT AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO CHAUTAUQUA LAKE
• GENEROUS LAWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $478
• HOA & community: Land lease present

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Two garage spaces noted
• Utilities: Well water; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home (Commodore); One story; Existing residence; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as existing (year built details: existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch / enclosed porch; Covered porch; Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) and additional storage; Private road frontage; Rectangular lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main level with private bath
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Sliding glass doors; Accessible bedroom; No stairs (single-level access); Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on main level with accessible utilities; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.50%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $30,240
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,008 (0%)	1mo	$16,500	$16	95
142 Greenhurst Vlg	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,036 (+3%)	2mo	$30,000	$29	90
136 7th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	980 (-3%)	2mo	$33,000	$34	88
155 8th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,008 (0%)	14mo	$39,500	$39	86
131 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	952 (-6%)	0mo	$17,000	$18	82
103 Palmer Greenhurst Village Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	980 (-3%)	13mo	$29,000	$30	78
116 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-3%)	11mo	$10,800	$11	76
130 7th St. Greenhurst Village Dr	0.12mi	2/1.5	980 (-3%)	19mo	$23,700	$24	72
139 7th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	980 (-3%)	23mo	$35,000	$36	70
108 Circle Greenhurst Village Dr	0.14mi	2/1.0	896 (-11%)	16mo	$35,000	$39	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $35,331
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $88,839
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $749	-5% $728	+0% $707	+5% $686	+10% $666
Rent	-10% $595	-5% $651	+0% $707	+5% $763	+10% $819
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $722	base $707	+0.5pp $692	+1.0pp $676

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2887 Fluvanna Townline Rd Jamestown, NY	1.0	1.0	820	$1,750	$2.13	44d	1	0.35mi
3779 Heineman Rd Bemus Point, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	44d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $60,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $8,006
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,921
• After-tax cash flow: $6,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained 2010 mobile home with good curb appeal and recent updates, ready for a fresh paint job and kitchen/bathroom updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated and could be replaced
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated and could be replaced

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen and improves resale value
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes bathroom and improves resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen and improves resale value ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes bathroom and improves resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• City population: 38,461
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $60,000 UNYREIS