18241 Swiss Cir Unit 1-28 · Germantown, MD 20874

$200,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,064 sqft · Condo · 20 Days on market

Built 1983 $245/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RARE TWO LEVEL CONDO! Double master suites in this 2 bedroom, 2 and 1/2 bath condo in Germantown! Great location close to shopping and restaurants as well as easy access to commuter routes. Investor special! This one won't last long!

Key facts

• Double master suites
• Great location
• Two level condo

Tags

• TWO LEVEL CONDO
• DOUBLE MASTER SUITES
• GREAT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO COMMUTER ROUTES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($528/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Germantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#36 in MD, #1,312 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-33,002
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,577
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20874

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$245
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,060

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18241 Swiss Cir Unit 5 BY Germantown, MD	2.0	2.5	1102	$2,300	$2.09	5d	1	0.02mi
18230 Swiss Cir Unit 1-9 Germantown, MD	1.0	1.0	723	$1,650	$2.28	4d	1	0.05mi
13123 Wonderland Way Apt 3 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.5	1132	$2,100	$1.86	43d	1	0.12mi
13257 Wonderland Way #302 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,075	$1.87	43d	1	0.15mi
18140 Chalet Dr Apt 204 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,875	$1.77	14d	1	0.15mi
18310 Timko Ln #99 Germantown, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	7d	1	0.16mi
18131 Chalet Dr Unit 24-103 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,900	$1.74	43d	1	0.18mi
13201 Chalet Pl Germantown, MD	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,295	$2.16	21d	1	0.18mi
13106 Wonderland Way Unit 1 Germantown, MD	1.0	1.0	723	$1,750	$2.42	18d	1	0.19mi
13200 Chalet Pl Apt 102 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	24d	1	0.20mi
13200 Chalet Pl Unit 10-102 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,950	$1.78	24d	1	0.20mi
18131 Chalet Dr Apt 301 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,899	$1.79	24d	1	0.22mi
18050 Chalet Dr Unit 14-103 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,900	$1.74	18d	1	0.24mi
13414 Daventry Way Germantown, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,412	$2.38	2d	13	0.25mi
18065 Cottage Garden Dr Germantown, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,923	$2.35	1d	8	0.30mi
13036 Mill House Ct Germantown, MD	3.0	4.0	1144	$2,950	$2.58	24d	1	0.33mi
18701 Sparkling Water Dr Unit 13D Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,000	$1.95	43d	1	0.37mi
18501 Owl Run Way Germantown, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,995	$2.66	21d	1	0.42mi
18715 Sparkling Water Dr Unit 9-302 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1437	$2,300	$1.60	43d	1	0.42mi
18830 Harmony Woods Ln Germantown, MD	3.0	2.5	1364	$3,000	$2.20	43d	1	0.43mi
13103 Millhaven Pl Unit 8E Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1146	$2,225	$1.94	43d	1	0.45mi
18805 Sparkling Water Dr Apt 203 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1183	$2,750	$2.32	43d	1	0.45mi
13611 Ale House Cir Germantown, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,897	$2.79	2d	11	0.46mi
18809 Sparkling Water Dr Unit T-3 Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1161	$2,150	$1.85	3d	1	0.47mi
18811 Sparkling Water Dr Unit 5-201 Germantown, MD	3.0	2.0	1183	$2,200	$1.86	24d	1	0.48mi
18815 Sparkling Water Dr Unit 4B Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,999	$1.95	43d	1	0.49mi
13205 Cloppers Mill Dr Unit 13D Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	980	$2,095	$2.14	21d	1	0.51mi
12712 Sesame Seed Ct Germantown, MD	3.0	1.0	1005	$2,250	$2.24	43d	1	0.64mi
18711 Paprika Ct Germantown, MD	3.0	1.5	1248	$2,400	$1.92	5d	1	0.64mi
12622 Grey Eagle Ct Germantown, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	861	$2,095	$2.43	1d	14	0.95mi
18832 Bent Willow Cir Germantown, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$2,171	$1.99	1d	20	1.00mi
18905 Lark Song Ter Germantown, MD	3.0	2.5	1377	$2,550	$1.85	43d	1	1.01mi
18513 Black Kettle Dr Boyds, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	21d	1	1.10mi
19030 Partridge Wood Dr Unit 19030 Germantown, MD	3.0	3.0	1060	$3,000	$2.83	5d	1	1.14mi
19228 Circle Gate Dr Germantown, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	1205	$1,727	$1.43	1d	24	1.16mi
12309 Silvergate Way Unit 908C Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	882	$1,850	$2.10	24d	1	1.17mi
12221 Eagles Nest Ct Unit B Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1036	$2,000	$1.93	20d	1	1.24mi
12221 Eagles Nest Ct Unit B Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1036	$2,000	$1.93	43d	1	1.24mi
12220 Eagles Nest Ct Germantown, MD	2.0	2.0	1087	$1,825	$1.68	4d	2	1.25mi
12146 Flag Harbor Dr Germantown, MD	3.0	2.5	1154	$2,700	$2.34	21d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $245 · $2,940/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   RARE TWO LEVEL CONDO! Double master suites in this 2 bedroom, 2 and 1/2 bath condo in Germantown! Great location close to shopping and restaurants as well as easy access to commuter routes. Investor special! This one won't last long!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $200,000 Active 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   RARE TWO LEVEL CONDO! Double master suites in this 2 bedroom, 2 and 1/2 bath condo in Germantown! Great location close to shopping and restaurants as well as easy access to commuter routes. Investor special! This one won't last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$633
• After-tax cash flow: $1,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400480
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $97,191
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4889
• State rank: #3 of 24 in MD

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1312

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, MD
• County: Montgomery County · 961,106 people
• City population: 89,144
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 62,738
• Household income: $115,022
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1766.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,173,231 people
• By 2030: 1,237,402 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 1,365,115 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,491,592 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 1,803,893 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 2,035,619 · +73.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 27% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 18% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.3) · D 75.2% · R 21.9% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.7pp toward D · 2008: 44.6pp · 2024: 53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.3 2020: D+59.6 2016: D+55.5 2012: D+43.4 2008: D+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.90%
• Current HPI: 262.1762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS