4333 Pentz Rd #30 · Paradise, CA 95969

$161,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · Manufactured · 136 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,500 sqft lot $123/sqft · 42% below area Est $279k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.3

Listing remarks

Sales Tax Included. Take advantage of 2 months free rent, beautiful views of the valley, generous lot sizes, wide concrete driveways and comfortable porches to enjoy the early mornings and evening sun sets. The Lime Saddle Mobile Home Park is an all ages community located just South of Paradise adjacent to the Sierra Del Sol Gated Community. This brand new 2025 Champion home features a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms at 1306 square feet and comes with a full kitchen appliance package, carpet and linoleum flooring, and washer/dryer hook-ups. We even welcome your four-legged family members. Pet restrictions apply.

Key facts

• Comfortable porches
• Generous lot sizes
• 4,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT SIZES
• WIDE CONCRETE DRIVEWAYS
• COMFORTABLE PORCHES
• FULL KITCHEN APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• WASHER DRYER HOOK UPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $161k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($171/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.4% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Golden Feather Union Elementary (rural): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,295 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Concow Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,256 of 1,571 statewide, top 81%, 69 students, 96% FRL); Oroville High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 936 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 72% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Golden Feather Union Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 607 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,000
• List price: $161,000
• Delta: -42.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1936 Hillpark Ln	1.77mi	3/2.0	1,347 (+3%)	10mo	$379,000	$281	51
2235 Stearns Rd	2.24mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+9%)	3mo	$445,000	$311	47
11228 Nelson Bar	2.09mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	7mo	$160,000	$111	42
1575 La Grande Vue	2.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (-7%)	8mo	$270,000	$222	42
5421 Pentz Rd	1.97mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-12%)	1mo	$357,000	$312	38
1390 Bennett	2.18mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+26%)	2mo	$440,000	$267	38
5003 Country Club Dr	1.73mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+14%)	7mo	$435,000	$293	36
5248 Pentz Rd	1.59mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+25%)	8mo	$409,000	$251	33
5369 Pentz Rd	1.86mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,138 (-13%)	9mo	$325,000	$286	31
5190 Edgewood Ln	1.94mi	2/2.0 (-1)	947 (-28%)	5mo	$279,000	$295	31
5202 Trafalgar	1.61mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+25%)	12mo	$427,000	$262	30
1381 Bennett Rd	2.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (+17%)	7mo	$444,500	$291	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,162
• Equity at exit: $24,006

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,686
• Equity at exit: $13,920

Cash invested: $45,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $157,000 ($125/sqft)
• Median days on market: 127 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +71.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95969

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 607
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$844
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$201 /mo · $2,415/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $161,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $70	+0% $14	+5% $-41	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-42	+0% $14	+5% $71	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $55	base $14	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,250
• Closing costs: $4,830
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source reported by ownerLiving area source: sellerAccessibility: parkingDirections available to property
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $600 (paid to park)
• HOA & community: Part of an associationCommunity in foothillsManager approval requiredPets allowed with breed restrictionsPark land lease

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayParking availablePark name: Lime Saddle MHP
• Utilities: PropaneElectricity connectedSewer connected (private sewer)Public/district water
• Home design: Single-story/mobile home (Humboldt Bay model)Double body typeMobile home remainsFacing private road
• Construction: Asphalt roof27' x 54' mobile dimensionsYear built reported by seller
• Exterior features: PorchPatioLandscaped yardCement board skirtingNo pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Quartz countertops
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace)Central cooling
• Interior features: Crown moldingsHigh (9'+) ceilingsCeiling fanPantryTwo staircasesOpen floor planEntry on Pentz RoadSingle-level entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupHas laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $161,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $161,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $161,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $161,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $161,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $161,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $161,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $161,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $161,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $161,000 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $161,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $161,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $161,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $161,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $161,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $161,000 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $161,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $161,000 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $161,000 Active 110 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $161,000 Active 109 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $161,000 Active 108 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $161,000 Active 106 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $161,000 Active 105 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $161,000 Active 104 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $161,000 Active 103 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $161,000 Active 102 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $161,000 Active 101 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $161,000 Active 100 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $161,000 Active 99 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $161,000 Active 98 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $161,000 Active 97 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $161,000 Active 96 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $161,000 Active 95 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $161,000 Active 94 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $161,000 Active 93 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $161,000 Active 92 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $161,000 Active 91 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $161,000 Active 90 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $161,000 Active 89 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $161,000 Active 88 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $161,000 Active 87 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $161,000 Active 86 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $161,000 Active 85 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $161,000 Active 84 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $161,000 Active 81 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $161,000 Active 80 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $161,000 Active 79 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $161,000 Active 77 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $161,000 Active 75 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $161,000 Active 74 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,019
• − Property taxes: −$2,415
• − Insurance: −$805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$4,684
• Taxable loss: −$2,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$611
• After-tax cash flow: $781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 29 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new 2025 Champion home is move-in ready with modern finishes and excellent condition. It offers a spacious layout, ample natural light, and a fresh paint job. Additional updates like new flooring and smart home devices can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood in bedrooms — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and add value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Concow Elementary F CA #1,256/1,571 Nat'l #33,508/41,679 High Oroville High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Golden Feather Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0615480
• Math proficiency: 11% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,377
• Composite: 16.29/100
• National rank: #14273
• State rank: #1295 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Paradise

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #18039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butte County · 237,527 people
• City population: 8,339
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,339
• Household income: $69,067
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.40%
• Current HPI: 102.8367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source reported by ownerLiving area source: sellerAccessibility: parkingDirections available to property
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $600 (paid to park)
• HOA & community: Part of an associationCommunity in foothillsManager approval requiredPets allowed with breed restrictionsPark land lease

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayParking availablePark name: Lime Saddle MHP
• Utilities: PropaneElectricity connectedSewer connected (private sewer)Public/district water
• Home design: Single-story/mobile home (Humboldt Bay model)Double body typeMobile home remainsFacing private road
• Construction: Asphalt roof27' x 54' mobile dimensionsYear built reported by seller
• Exterior features: PorchPatioLandscaped yardCement board skirtingNo pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Quartz countertops
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace)Central cooling
• Interior features: Crown moldingsHigh (9'+) ceilingsCeiling fanPantryTwo staircasesOpen floor planEntry on Pentz RoadSingle-level entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupHas laundry

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $161,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $153,000 CRMLS