444 Monarch Dr · Branson, MO 65616

$98,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 1995 2,612 sqft lot Est $105k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to your perfect getaway in the heart of Branson or seize an incredible investment opportunity with this charming Park Model unit in the picturesque Fall Creek RV Estates. Recently updated with fresh paint, new flooring, and improved ducting, this home is ready for your final touches. A spacious loft, full main bedroom, and generous living area provide ample room for relaxation and entertaining. Plus, a large storage shed offers extra convenience to store all those toys. With a few personal touches, this property has endless potential to become your dream retreat or a sought-after rental. Don't miss out on this hidden gem!

Key facts

• Extra parking
• Close to lakes
• On a resort

Tags

• CLOSE TO LAKES
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• NICE PATIO AREA
• EXTRA PARKING
• WALKING DISTANCE TO MARINA
• ON A RESORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Construction: 408 square feet of living area
• Exterior features: Lot area of approximately 2,612 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.5% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1048 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,285 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.66%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,856
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Sunshine Cir	0.26mi	1/1.0	396 (-3%)	1mo	$114,000	$288	82
444 Monarch Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	408 (0%)	16mo	$55,000	$135	82
136 Estate Cir Cir	0.06mi	2/1.0 (+1)	408 (0%)	15mo	$103,900	$255	80
205 Sunshine Cir	0.26mi	1/1.0	408 (0%)	14mo	$104,900	$257	76
406 Monarch Dr	0.13mi	1/1.0	358 (-12%)	11mo	$95,000	$265	64
221 Blue Bird Ln	0.11mi	1/1.0	360 (-12%)	20mo	$49,500	$138	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,315
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,424
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1048
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $263/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $730

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8669 Historic State Highway 165 Hollister, MO	—	1.0	336	$650	$1.93	43d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $98,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $98,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 362-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $98,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $263 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 261.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$263
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$886
• − Management: −$886
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$50
• After-tax cash flow: $1,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+78.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $98,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-02-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-18 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2025-01-30 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-01-30 Listed $55,000 SOMO
• 2003-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $263 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.