The Thornwood Plan · Newport, NC 28570

$431,300

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,748 sqft · SingleFamily · 340 Days on market

$25/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Dining room
• Flex room
• Great room

Tags

• TWO STORY ENTRY HALLWAY
• FLEX ROOM
• PRIVATE GUEST POWDER ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• BREAKFAST AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $25

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: The Thornwood plan; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,748 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan model home (The Thornwood)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $431k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($82k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $431k).
• Recommended offer: $380k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#385 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,426/mo this rent would consume 212% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $121k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($380k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $379,544 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.68%
• DSCR: 4.01
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $364,087
• Equity at exit: $64,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $876,417
• Equity at exit: $37,291

Cash invested: $120,764 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,426 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$539 /mo · $6,470/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,609
• Net cashflow: $6,811

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,805

Max offer price $431,300

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,825
• Closing costs: $12,939
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $431,300 Active 340 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $431,300 Active 339 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $431,300 Active 338 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $431,300 Active 337 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $431,300 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $431,300 Active 334 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $431,300 Active 333 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $431,300 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $431,300 Active 329 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $421,300 Active 329 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $421,300 Active 328 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $421,300 Active 325 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $421,300 Active 324 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $421,300 Active 323 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $421,300 Active 322 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $421,300 Active 321 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $421,300 Active 320 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $149,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,160
• − Property taxes: −$6,470
• − Insurance: −$2,156
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,929
• − Management: −$11,929
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$12,547
• Taxable income: $79,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19,108
• After-tax cash flow: $62,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Newport

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #15094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport, NC
• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• City population: 22,197
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B