Plan 1457 Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$467,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,843 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 2-story home combines style, comfort, and functionality in a design tailored to modern living. With 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a private study, it offers versatile spaces for work, play, and relaxation. The first floor features a welcoming guest suite and a bright, open-concept living area centered around a chef-inspired kitchen with a large island-perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, the luxurious primary suite is a retreat with dual walk-in closets and a spa-like en-suite bath boasting a spacious shower large vanity with dual sinks. A game room, utility room, and 2 secondary bedrooms with a shared bath provide additional convenience. The rear-entry 2-car garage and abundant storage throughout enhance practicality. Customizable options ensure this home meets your unique needs, making it the perfect place to live, work, and thrive.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 64 days

🏗️ New construction. The $467,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $612,676.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $468k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $395k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $345k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1112 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $345,203 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.54%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $612,676
• List price: $467,990
• Delta: -23.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4418 Timberdrift St	0.03mi	4/3.5	2,944 (+4%)	2mo	$534,777	$182	91
4409 Capstone Rd	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,896 (+2%)	3mo	$559,000	$193	86
4613 Timberdrift St	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,698 (-5%)	3mo	$539,900	$200	81
4450 Timberdrift St	0.11mi	4/3.5	3,026 (+6%)	3mo	$574,000	$190	81
4022 Eagles Bluff Rd	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,759 (-3%)	1mo	$515,000	$187	73
4613 Clearcrest Rd	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,656 (-7%)	4mo	$519,900	$196	69
2022 Slipchannel St	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,905 (+2%)	3mo	$574,900	$198	68
1434 Terrain Rd	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,521 (-11%)	2mo	$475,000	$188	64
1210 Deacon Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,783 (-2%)	2mo	$517,900	$186	62
1225 Deacon Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,521 (-11%)	3mo	$487,900	$194	52
3838 Foot Hills Dr	0.49mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,521 (-11%)	2mo	$472,900	$188	49
4809 Signal Run Rd	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,521 (-11%)	3mo	$479,819	$190	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-190,562
• Equity at exit: $91,352

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-269,736
• Equity at exit: $52,973

Cash invested: $171,549 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1112
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,213
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$766 /mo · $9,190/yr
• Insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$725
• Net cashflow: $-1,507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,360

Max offer price $394,616

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,169
• Closing costs: $18,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1810 Hidden Water Trl Midlothian, TX	3.0	3.0	2456	$3,800	$1.55	43d	1	0.22mi
4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,100	$1.34	4d	1	0.46mi
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	43d	1	0.98mi
3825 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	5.0	4.0	3771	$4,500	$1.19	43d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $467,990 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $467,990 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $467,990 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $467,990 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $467,990 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $467,990 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $467,990 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $467,990 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $467,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $467,990 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $467,990 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $467,990 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $467,990 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    listed $467,990 Active 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    This beautiful 2-story home combines style, comfort, and functionality in a design tailored to modern living. With 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and a private study, it offers versatile spaces for work, play, and relaxation. The first floor features a welcoming guest suite and a bright, open-concept living area centered around a chef-inspired kitchen with a large island-perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, the luxurious primary suite is a retreat with dual walk-in closets and a spa-like en-suite bath boasting a spacious shower large vanity with dual sinks. A game room, utility room, and 2 secondary bedrooms with a shared bath provide additional convenience. The rear-entry 2-car garage and abundant storage throughout enhance practicality. Customizable options ensure this home meets your unique needs, making it the perfect place to live, work, and thrive.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,319
• − Property taxes: −$9,190
• − Insurance: −$3,063
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,314
• − Management: −$3,314
• − Depreciation: −$17,823
• Taxable loss: −$29,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,104
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $467,990 Zillow