815 Gulf Pavilion Dr #201 · Naples Park, FL 34108

$399,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1990 $677/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ONE MILE WALK OR BIKE TO VANDERBILT BEACH! The seller is replacing the Polybutylene plumbing. This is an ideal North Naples property, perfect for personal use, investment, or seasonal rental income, offering a rare opportunity to own a highly sought-after 2-bedroom plus den, second-floor end-unit condo with tranquil, private views from a sunny, bright west-facing screened lanai. Central A/C is only 2 years old, and the hot water heater is only 4 years old. Located in one of the most desirable areas of North Naples, you can easily walk or bike to Vanderbilt Beach, The Ritz-Carlton, Mercato, Pelican Bay Community Park, Paragon Theater, LA Fitness, Whole Foods, Publix, and countless dining and

Key facts

• Hot water heater
• Central a/c
• Fully enclosed lanai

Tags

• PRIVATE VIEWS
• WEST-FACING SCREENED LANAI
• CENTRAL A/C
• HOT WATER HEATER
• FULLY ENCLOSED LANAI
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with on-site management; Quarterly condo fee of $2,032 (total annual recurring fees $8,128); One-time fees $150; HOA maintenance covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, reserves, sewer, street lights, trash removal and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community room, BBQ/picnic area, bike storage, shopping nearby, sidewalks, streetlights, and underground utilities; Community type: Condo/Hotel in a gated complex

Exterior

• Parking: One assigned parking space; Detached 1-car carport; Driveway paving and guest/paved parking available
• Security: Gated community; Entry keypad
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential, low-rise (1-3) building; 2-story building; Zero lot line; Rear exposure faces west; Located in the Pavilion Club community (gated)
• Construction: Built in 1990; Concrete block and wood frame construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Privacy wall; Automatic sprinkler system; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer; Breakfast bar and eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den with a split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and a shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire and high-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Vaulted ceiling; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Turnkey furnished; Screened lanai/porch; Den/study; Laundry in residence; 4 ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $881 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $399k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#696 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,229/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.47%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $19,496
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $216,590
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34108

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,770/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$677
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,098
• Net cashflow: $881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,114

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,107	-5% $994	+0% $881	+5% $768	+10% $655
Rent	-10% $468	-5% $675	+0% $881	+5% $1,088	+10% $1,294
Rate	-1.0pp $1,082	-0.5pp $983	base $881	+0.5pp $778	+1.0pp $673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
815 Gulf Pavilion Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$3,500	$2.97	24d	1	0.02mi
822 Gulf Pavilion Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$6,500	$5.10	24d	1	0.08mi
834 Gulf Pavilion Dr #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$8,000	$5.28	24d	1	0.12mi
834 Gulf Pavilion Dr #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$5,000	$3.30	22d	1	0.12mi
749 91st Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1417	$3,750	$2.65	14d	1	0.13mi
737 91st Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$12,750	$8.14	24d	1	0.14mi
840 Gulf Pavilion Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$5,500	$4.66	24d	1	0.15mi
829 Reef Point Cir Unit 46 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	24d	1	0.17mi
845 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$4,200	$3.09	24d	1	0.19mi
719 Reef Point Cir #13 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1343	$8,000	$5.96	24d	1	0.19mi
714 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1347	$8,500	$6.31	14d	1	0.20mi
857 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	24d	1	0.20mi
881 Gulf Pavilion Dr #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$7,500	$4.95	24d	1	0.21mi
8385 Excalibur Cir Unit G3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$10,000	$7.24	24d	1	0.27mi
795 Bentwater Cir #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1831	$15,000	$8.19	24d	1	0.28mi
736 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1820	$3,500	$1.92	24d	1	0.28mi
791 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$9,000	$6.43	24d	1	0.30mi
799 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$5,000	$2.99	24d	1	0.30mi
805 Bentwater Cir #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$14,500	$7.92	24d	1	0.30mi
8405 Excalibur Cir Unit D3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$9,000	$6.51	24d	1	0.32mi
661 Windsurf Ln Unit A-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$7,500	$5.56	14d	1	0.32mi
655 Windsurf Ln Unit 1546357P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$3,376	$2.34	14d	1	0.33mi
794 95th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$6,500	$3.60	24d	1	0.33mi
649 Beachwalk Cir Unit C101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$7,500	$5.17	14d	1	0.35mi
825 Bentwater Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1900	$10,000	$5.26	24d	1	0.35mi
8415 Excalibur Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1522	$9,750	$6.40	24d	1	0.35mi
757 95th Ave N Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,150	$1.95	24d	1	0.36mi
650 93rd Ave N Unit 1073498P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$5,136	$3.56	14d	1	0.38mi
1000 L Ambiance Cir #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$9,500	$4.93	24d	1	0.38mi
643 Beachwalk Cir Unit D-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,950	$4.41	14d	1	0.38mi
768 96th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1735	$11,500	$6.63	24d	1	0.39mi
717 95th Ave N Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	24d	1	0.39mi
837 Sailaway Ln #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$14,000	$7.65	24d	1	0.39mi
837 Sailaway Ln #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$11,500	$6.75	24d	1	0.39mi
500 Lambiance Cir Unit 5-104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1349	$8,000	$5.93	24d	1	0.39mi
700 Bentwater Cir #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$14,000	$7.65	14d	1	0.40mi
831 Sailaway Ln #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$14,000	$7.65	24d	1	0.40mi
831 Sailaway Ln #203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1862	$13,000	$6.98	24d	1	0.40mi
671 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$6,800	$4.64	24d	1	0.40mi
682 95th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$12,500	$7.81	24d	1	0.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $677 · $8,124/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $399,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,770 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,770 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$3,770
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,020
• − Management: −$5,020
• − HOA: −$8,124
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable income: $4,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $9,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples Park

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #696
• US rank: #14564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,237
• Household income: $119,212
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -587.97%
• Current HPI: 275.1872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.74%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $399,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,770 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.