21526 Juliann Alyes · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1997 0.28 ac lot $108/sqft · at area comps Est $183k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering comfort, space, and convenience. The primary bathroom features a tub and shower. The kitchen is equipped with beautiful granite countertops, adding both style and durability. Situated on a spacious lot, this property features a large front and backyard, ideal for entertaining, pets, or outdoor activities. The entire front of the property is secured with a sturdy metal gate, providing privacy and peace of mind. The roof was replaced approximately 2 years ago, offering added value and reduced maintenance concerns. Conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday amenities, and located in a quiet neighborhood with no restrictions.

Key facts

• Replaced roof
• Granite countertops
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE FRONT AND BACKYARD
• METAL GATE
• REPLACED ROOF
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.79%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,880
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -1.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21517 Abigail Grace Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-9%)	3mo	$220,000	$146	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,756
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $39,836
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,499/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,448

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21196 South St New Caney, TX	3.0	3.0	1386	$1,795	$1.30	43d	1	1.12mi
21625 Hackamore Ct Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,145	$1.22	11d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering comfort, space, and convenience. The primary bathroom features a tub and shower. The kitchen is equipped with beautiful granite countertops, adding both style and durability. Situated on a spacious lot, this property features a large front and backyard, ideal for entertaining, pets, or outdoor activities. The entire front of the property is secured with a sturdy metal gate, providing privacy and peace of mind. The roof was replaced approximately 2 years ago, offering added value and reduced maintenance concerns. Conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday amenities, and located in a quiet neighborhood with no restrictions.

2. 2026-04-08
   price $180,000 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering comfort, space, and convenience. The primary bathroom features a tub and shower. The kitchen is equipped with beautiful granite countertops, adding both style and durability. Situated on a spacious lot, this property features a large front and backyard, ideal for entertaining, pets, or outdoor activities. The entire front of the property is secured with a sturdy metal gate, providing privacy and peace of mind. The roof was replaced approximately 2 years ago, offering added value and reduced maintenance concerns. Conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday amenities, and located in a quiet neighborhood with no restrictions.

3. 2026-03-17
   price $183,500 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering comfort, space, and convenience. The primary bathroom features a tub and shower. The kitchen is equipped with beautiful granite countertops, adding both style and durability. Situated on a spacious lot, this property features a large front and backyard, ideal for entertaining, pets, or outdoor activities. The entire front of the property is secured with a sturdy metal gate, providing privacy and peace of mind. The roof was replaced approximately 2 years ago, offering added value and reduced maintenance concerns. Conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday amenities, and located in a quiet neighborhood with no restrictions.

4. 2026-03-03
   price $185,000 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering comfort, space, and convenience. The primary bathroom features a tub and shower. The kitchen is equipped with beautiful granite countertops, adding both style and durability. Situated on a spacious lot, this property features a large front and backyard, ideal for entertaining, pets, or outdoor activities. The entire front of the property is secured with a sturdy metal gate, providing privacy and peace of mind. The roof was replaced approximately 2 years ago, offering added value and reduced maintenance concerns. Conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday amenities, and located in a quiet neighborhood with no restrictions.

5. 2026-02-05
   listed $199,500 Active 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering comfort, space, and convenience. The primary bathroom features a tub and shower. The kitchen is equipped with beautiful granite countertops, adding both style and durability. Situated on a spacious lot, this property features a large front and backyard, ideal for entertaining, pets, or outdoor activities. The entire front of the property is secured with a sturdy metal gate, providing privacy and peace of mind. The roof was replaced approximately 2 years ago, offering added value and reduced maintenance concerns. Conveniently located near shopping centers, dining, and everyday amenities, and located in a quiet neighborhood with no restrictions.

6. 2024-07-31
   historical
7. 2024-06-08
   price $188,000
8. 2024-04-24
   price $190,000
9. 2024-03-25
   price $195,000
10. 2024-01-21
    price $200,000
11. 2024-01-20
    listed $20,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,795/yr (+$150/mo · 119.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,499
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $4,264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $5,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+800.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $183,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-08 Price Changed $188,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-21 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-20 Listed $20,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,499 · +19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.