7444 S Cindy Pt · Sugarmill Woods, FL 34446

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1991 0.51 ac lot Est $144k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well Cared for 3 Bedroom/2 Bath Mobile Home. Located in Desirable Green Acres. Peaceful Setting on . 50 Acre, Relax in the 12 x 40 Sunroom, Open Floor Plan, New flooring Throughout. Call to see it Today !!

Key facts

• Master suite
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Private bath

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• FULLY FURNISHED
• GREAT ROOM DESIGN
• MASTER SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH
• GENEROUS PANTRY CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway; Attached carport; Total 1 parking space
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property
• Construction: Membrane (rubber) roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range and oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dryer, Washer, Electric Oven, Electric Range, Refrigerator; Laminate and tile floors; Central air conditioning; Heat pump heating; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.0% in Sugarmill Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#825 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Homosassa Elementary School (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 411 students, 78% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 582 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $179k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.04%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,520
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7305 S Threshold Pt	0.41mi	3/2.0	960 (+4%)	2mo	$190,000	$198	72
7471 S Nancy Pt	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,016 (+10%)	8mo	$100,000	$98	66
7400 S Mindy Pt	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-3%)	3mo	$120,000	$134	61
7227 S Finale Pt	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-15%)	1mo	$169,600	$216	53
6195 W Cardinal St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+4%)	7mo	$70,000	$73	48
7112 Finale Pt. Pt	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	784 (-15%)	8mo	$122,100	$156	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,321
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $14,969
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34446

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,429/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,433

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $179,000 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-04-20
    listed $179,000 Active
15. 2014-05-22
    soldstatus $46,000 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Well Cared for 3 Bedroom/2 Bath Mobile Home. Located in Desirable Green Acres. Peaceful Setting on . 50 Acre, Relax in the 12 x 40 Sunroom, Open Floor Plan, New flooring Throughout. Call to see it Today !!

16. 2014-05-20
    soldstatus $46,000
17. 2014-01-17
    listed $54,900 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Well Cared for 3 Bedroom/2 Bath Mobile Home. Located in Desirable Green Acres. Peaceful Setting on . 50 Acre, Relax in the 12 x 40 Sunroom, Open Floor Plan, New flooring Throughout. Call to see it Today !!

18. 2011-02-20
    soldstatus $34,500 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Here is a Good Buy on Double Wide with Front Porch and Carport on 1/2 Acre Lot PLUS * * * Gated Fenced Yard with 20 X 12 Work Shop and other out building. It is OK to park your RV on this property. This mh is partialy furnished also !!!!!!

19. 2011-01-12
    listed $36,900 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Here is a Good Buy on Double Wide with Front Porch and Carport on 1/2 Acre Lot PLUS * * * Gated Fenced Yard with 20 X 12 Work Shop and other out building. It is OK to park your RV on this property. This mh is partialy furnished also !!!!!!

20. 1994-03-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$57/yr (+$5/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,429
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$154
• After-tax cash flow: $3,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sugarmill Woods

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #20184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugarmill Woods, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,797
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,102
• Household income: $58,802
• Rent vs Own: 6.9% rent · 93.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 121.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.11%
• Current HPI: 277.2576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1690.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $179,000 RACC
• 2014-05-22 Sold (MLS) $46,000 RACC
• 2014-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2014-01-17 Listed $54,900 RACC
• 2011-02-20 Sold (MLS) $34,500 RACC
• 2011-01-12 Listed $36,900 RACC
• 1994-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,429 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.