234 Randallwood Dr · Hot Springs, AR 71901

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1979 0.71 ac lot Est $114k · 41% over ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this distinctive 4-bedroom, 2-bath home (1 Bed/1 Bath section can be separate living quarters or main bedroom) nestled on a spacious . 71-acre lot in a serene subdivision tucked away on a quiet dead-end street—offering peace, privacy, and potential. Built with great bones and ample space, this property presents a rare opportunity for buyers with vision and creativity. Imagine transforming this canvas into your dream home or a rewarding investment. While it currently needs extensive rehabilitation, the expansive yard and peaceful location form an ideal foundation for restoration or redesign. With natural surroundings, mature trees, and that coveted dead-end street ambiance, this property is primed for a fresh start. Bring your contractor or designer and imagine the possibilities!

Key facts

• Peaceful location
• Spacious lot
• Dead-end street

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• SEPARATE LIVING QUARTERS
• PEACEFUL LOCATION
• MATURE TREES
• DEAD-END STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fountain Lake School District (rural): math 43% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #49 of 238 in AR (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.39%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,792
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Randallwood Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,728 (-15%)	8mo	$97,500	$56	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-17,901
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,398
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71901

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,108/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,263

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-01-09
   historical Active Under Contract 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   Discover this distinctive 4-bedroom, 2-bath home (1 Bed/1 Bath section can be separate living quarters or main bedroom) nestled on a spacious . 71-acre lot in a serene subdivision tucked away on a quiet dead-end street—offering peace, privacy, and potential. Built with great bones and ample space, this property presents a rare opportunity for buyers with vision and creativity. Imagine transforming this canvas into your dream home or a rewarding investment. While it currently needs extensive rehabilitation, the expansive yard and peaceful location form an ideal foundation for restoration or redesign. With natural surroundings, mature trees, and that coveted dead-end street ambiance, this property is primed for a fresh start. Bring your contractor or designer and imagine the possibilities!

2. 2026-01-09
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   Discover this distinctive 4-bedroom, 2-bath home (1 Bed/1 Bath section can be separate living quarters or main bedroom) nestled on a spacious . 71-acre lot in a serene subdivision tucked away on a quiet dead-end street—offering peace, privacy, and potential. Built with great bones and ample space, this property presents a rare opportunity for buyers with vision and creativity. Imagine transforming this canvas into your dream home or a rewarding investment. While it currently needs extensive rehabilitation, the expansive yard and peaceful location form an ideal foundation for restoration or redesign. With natural surroundings, mature trees, and that coveted dead-end street ambiance, this property is primed for a fresh start. Bring your contractor or designer and imagine the possibilities!

3. 2025-08-14
   listed $159,900 Active 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   Discover this distinctive 4-bedroom, 2-bath home (1 Bed/1 Bath section can be separate living quarters or main bedroom) nestled on a spacious . 71-acre lot in a serene subdivision tucked away on a quiet dead-end street—offering peace, privacy, and potential. Built with great bones and ample space, this property presents a rare opportunity for buyers with vision and creativity. Imagine transforming this canvas into your dream home or a rewarding investment. While it currently needs extensive rehabilitation, the expansive yard and peaceful location form an ideal foundation for restoration or redesign. With natural surroundings, mature trees, and that coveted dead-end street ambiance, this property is primed for a fresh start. Bring your contractor or designer and imagine the possibilities!

4. 2025-08-13
   listed $159,900 New Listing
5. 2024-10-08
   historical
6. 2024-10-08
   historical
7. 2024-09-10
   listed $230,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,108 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,108 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,108
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,366
• − Management: −$1,366
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $1,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fountain Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 0506420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $52,435
• Composite: 35.99/100
• National rank: #4789
• State rank: #49 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 28,937
• Household income: $53,514
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 961.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.75%
• Current HPI: 317.2542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-30.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Contingent — HSBOR
• 2026-01-09 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $159,900 HSBOR
• 2025-08-13 Listed $159,900 CARMLS
• 2024-10-08 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-10-08 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Listed $230,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,108 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.